Alpha Trust Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ANDRO Stock | EUR 8.22 0.08 0.98% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alpha Trust Andromeda on the next trading day is expected to be 8.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.14. Alpha Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alpha Trust stock prices and determine the direction of Alpha Trust Andromeda's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Alpha Trust's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Alpha Trust's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alpha Trust hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alpha Trust Andromeda from the perspective of Alpha Trust response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alpha Trust Andromeda on the next trading day is expected to be 8.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.14. Alpha Trust after-hype prediction price | EUR 8.22 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Alpha Trust Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alpha price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alpha using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alpha charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alpha Trust Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Alpha Trust Andromeda on the next trading day is expected to be 8.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.14.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alpha Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alpha Trust's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alpha Trust Stock Forecast Pattern
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Alpha Trust Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alpha Trust's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alpha Trust's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 7.40 and 9.08, respectively. We have considered Alpha Trust's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alpha Trust stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alpha Trust stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0071 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0532 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0068 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.14 |
Predictive Modules for Alpha Trust
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alpha Trust Andromeda. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alpha Trust After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alpha Trust at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alpha Trust or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alpha Trust, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alpha Trust Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alpha Trust's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alpha Trust's historical news coverage. Alpha Trust's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.38 and 9.06, respectively. We have considered Alpha Trust's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alpha Trust is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alpha Trust Andromeda is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alpha Trust Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alpha Trust is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alpha Trust backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alpha Trust, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.17 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.22 | 8.22 | 0.00 |
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Alpha Trust Hype Timeline
Alpha Trust Andromeda is presently traded for 8.22on Athens Exchange of Greece. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alpha is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.17%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alpha Trust is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.22. About 21.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Alpha Trust Andromeda last dividend was issued on the 16th of December 2022. The entity had 4:1 split on the 22nd of October 2021. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alpha Trust to cross-verify your projections.Alpha Trust Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alpha Trust's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alpha Trust's future price movements. Getting to know how Alpha Trust's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alpha Trust may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IATR | Athens Medical CSA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.01 | 2.49 | (2.05) | 5.98 | |
| INLIF | Interlife General Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.11 | 4.17 | (2.15) | 7.51 | |
| MTLN | Metlen Energy Metals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | (0.02) | 3.29 | (2.82) | 9.15 | |
| INTET | Intertech SA Inter | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.46 | 0.07 | 3.50 | (2.96) | 9.16 | |
| TELL | Bank of Greece | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.47 | 0.03 | 1.02 | (1.00) | 3.89 | |
| PLAT | Thrace Plastics Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.75 | 0.07 | 2.05 | (1.59) | 7.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alpha Trust
For every potential investor in Alpha, whether a beginner or expert, Alpha Trust's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alpha Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alpha. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alpha Trust's price trends.Alpha Trust Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alpha Trust stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alpha Trust could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alpha Trust by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alpha Trust Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alpha Trust stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alpha Trust shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alpha Trust stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alpha Trust Andromeda entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alpha Trust Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alpha Trust's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alpha Trust's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alpha stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.6515 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5603 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.827 | |||
| Variance | 0.6839 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.6931 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.314 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.84) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alpha Trust
The number of cover stories for Alpha Trust depends on current market conditions and Alpha Trust's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alpha Trust is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alpha Trust's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Alpha Trust Short Properties
Alpha Trust's future price predictability will typically decrease when Alpha Trust's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Alpha Trust Andromeda often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Alpha Trust's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alpha Trust's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 898.9 K | |
| Forward Annual Dividend Rate | 0.57 |
Other Information on Investing in Alpha Stock
Alpha Trust financial ratios help investors to determine whether Alpha Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Alpha with respect to the benefits of owning Alpha Trust security.