Aoxing Pharmaceutical Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AOXG Stock  USD 0  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aoxing Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.03. Aoxing Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aoxing Pharmaceutical's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Aoxing Pharmaceutical simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Aoxing Pharmaceutical are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Aoxing Pharmaceutical prices get older.

Aoxing Pharmaceutical Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aoxing Pharmaceutical on the next trading day is expected to be 0 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0006, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000198, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aoxing Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aoxing Pharmaceutical's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aoxing Pharmaceutical Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Aoxing Pharmaceutical Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aoxing Pharmaceutical's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aoxing Pharmaceutical's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.000041 and 24.47, respectively. We have considered Aoxing Pharmaceutical's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0
0.000041
Downside
0
Expected Value
24.47
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aoxing Pharmaceutical pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aoxing Pharmaceutical pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria103.1389
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 1.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation6.0E-4
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1113
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0333
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Aoxing Pharmaceutical forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Aoxing Pharmaceutical observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Aoxing Pharmaceutical

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aoxing Pharmaceutical. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aoxing Pharmaceutical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.00024.46
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.00024.46
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Aoxing Pharmaceutical

For every potential investor in Aoxing, whether a beginner or expert, Aoxing Pharmaceutical's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aoxing Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aoxing. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aoxing Pharmaceutical's price trends.

Aoxing Pharmaceutical Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aoxing Pharmaceutical pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aoxing Pharmaceutical could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aoxing Pharmaceutical by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aoxing Pharmaceutical Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aoxing Pharmaceutical's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aoxing Pharmaceutical's current price.

Aoxing Pharmaceutical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aoxing Pharmaceutical pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aoxing Pharmaceutical shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aoxing Pharmaceutical pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Aoxing Pharmaceutical entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aoxing Pharmaceutical Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aoxing Pharmaceutical's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aoxing Pharmaceutical's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aoxing pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Aoxing Pink Sheet

Aoxing Pharmaceutical financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aoxing Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aoxing with respect to the benefits of owning Aoxing Pharmaceutical security.