Applied Materials Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AP2 Stock | EUR 168.50 0.28 0.17% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 158.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.46. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Applied Materials' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Applied |
Applied Materials Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied Materials on the next trading day is expected to be 158.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.20, mean absolute percentage error of 26.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 256.46.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Materials' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Materials Stock Forecast Pattern
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Applied Materials Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Materials' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Materials' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 155.78 and 160.96, respectively. We have considered Applied Materials' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Materials stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Materials stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.3759 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.2043 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0245 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 256.4636 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Applied Materials
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Materials' price trends.Applied Materials Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Materials stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Materials could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Materials by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Applied Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Applied Materials' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Materials Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Materials stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Materials shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Materials stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Materials entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Materials Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Materials' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Materials' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.59 | |||
| Variance | 6.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Applied Stock
When determining whether Applied Materials is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Applied Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Applied Materials Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Applied Materials Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Materials to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in Applied Stock please use our How to Invest in Applied Materials guide.You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.