Apexindo Pratama Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| APEX Stock | IDR 208.00 2.00 0.95% |
Apexindo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, the value of RSI of Apexindo Pratama's share price is approaching 40. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Apexindo Pratama, making its price go up or down. Momentum 40
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Apexindo Pratama hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apexindo Pratama Duta from the perspective of Apexindo Pratama response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Apexindo Pratama Duta on the next trading day is expected to be 204.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 665.85. Apexindo Pratama after-hype prediction price | IDR 208.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Apexindo |
Apexindo Pratama Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Apexindo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apexindo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apexindo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Apexindo Pratama Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Apexindo Pratama Duta on the next trading day is expected to be 204.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 11.29, mean absolute percentage error of 211.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 665.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apexindo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apexindo Pratama's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Apexindo Pratama Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Apexindo Pratama | Apexindo Pratama Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Apexindo Pratama Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Apexindo Pratama's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apexindo Pratama's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 199.10 and 210.37, respectively. We have considered Apexindo Pratama's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apexindo Pratama stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apexindo Pratama stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 1.8091 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 11.2856 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0493 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 665.8522 |
Predictive Modules for Apexindo Pratama
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apexindo Pratama Duta. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Apexindo Pratama After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Apexindo Pratama at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apexindo Pratama or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apexindo Pratama, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Apexindo Pratama Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Apexindo Pratama's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apexindo Pratama's historical news coverage. Apexindo Pratama's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 202.36 and 213.64, respectively. We have considered Apexindo Pratama's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Apexindo Pratama is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apexindo Pratama Duta is based on 3 months time horizon.
Apexindo Pratama Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Apexindo Pratama is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apexindo Pratama backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apexindo Pratama, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.06 | 5.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
208.00 | 208.00 | 0.00 |
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Apexindo Pratama Hype Timeline
Apexindo Pratama Duta is presently traded for 208.00on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Apexindo is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Apexindo Pratama is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 208.00. About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Apexindo Pratama Duta recorded earning per share (EPS) of 22.9. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of June 2008. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apexindo Pratama to cross-verify your projections.Apexindo Pratama Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Apexindo Pratama's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apexindo Pratama's future price movements. Getting to know how Apexindo Pratama's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apexindo Pratama may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SICO | PT Sigma Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.36 | (2.31) | 10.06 | |
| AIMS | Akbar Indomakmur Stimec | 0.00 | 0 per month | 6.00 | 0.06 | 24.43 | (14.29) | 40.00 | |
| CGAS | Citra Nusantara Gemilang | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.42 | (0.01) | 5.39 | (7.22) | 36.61 | |
| ATLA | Atlantis Subsea Indonesia | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.66 | (5.71) | 37.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Apexindo Pratama
For every potential investor in Apexindo, whether a beginner or expert, Apexindo Pratama's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apexindo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apexindo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apexindo Pratama's price trends.Apexindo Pratama Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apexindo Pratama stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apexindo Pratama could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apexindo Pratama by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Apexindo Pratama Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apexindo Pratama stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apexindo Pratama shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apexindo Pratama stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apexindo Pratama Duta entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Apexindo Pratama Risk Indicators
The analysis of Apexindo Pratama's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apexindo Pratama's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apexindo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.96 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.54 | |||
| Variance | 30.64 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Apexindo Pratama
The number of cover stories for Apexindo Pratama depends on current market conditions and Apexindo Pratama's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apexindo Pratama is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apexindo Pratama's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Apexindo Pratama Short Properties
Apexindo Pratama's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apexindo Pratama's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apexindo Pratama Duta often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apexindo Pratama's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apexindo Pratama's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.5 M |
Other Information on Investing in Apexindo Stock
Apexindo Pratama financial ratios help investors to determine whether Apexindo Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Apexindo with respect to the benefits of owning Apexindo Pratama security.