Apple Hospitality Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| APLE Stock | USD 12.16 0.20 1.67% |
Apple Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Apple Hospitality stock prices and determine the direction of Apple Hospitality REIT's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Apple Hospitality's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Apple Hospitality's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Apple Hospitality hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Apple Hospitality REIT from the perspective of Apple Hospitality response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Apple Hospitality REIT on the next trading day is expected to be 12.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.59. Apple Hospitality after-hype prediction price | USD 12.14 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple Hospitality to cross-verify your projections. Apple Hospitality Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Apple price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Apple using various technical indicators. When you analyze Apple charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Apple Hospitality Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 7th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Apple Hospitality REIT on the next trading day is expected to be 12.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Apple Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Apple Hospitality's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Apple Hospitality Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Apple Hospitality | Apple Hospitality Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Apple Hospitality Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Apple Hospitality's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Apple Hospitality's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.84 and 13.60, respectively. We have considered Apple Hospitality's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Apple Hospitality stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Apple Hospitality stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0514 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1456 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0123 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.59 |
Predictive Modules for Apple Hospitality
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apple Hospitality REIT. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Apple Hospitality After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Apple Hospitality at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Apple Hospitality or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Apple Hospitality, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Apple Hospitality Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Apple Hospitality's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Apple Hospitality's historical news coverage. Apple Hospitality's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.75 and 13.53, respectively. We have considered Apple Hospitality's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Apple Hospitality is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Apple Hospitality REIT is based on 3 months time horizon.
Apple Hospitality Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Apple Hospitality is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Apple Hospitality backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Apple Hospitality, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 1.38 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
12.16 | 12.14 | 0.08 |
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Apple Hospitality Hype Timeline
Apple Hospitality REIT is presently traded for 12.16. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Apple is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.14. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Apple Hospitality is about 1826.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.15. About 86.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.9. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Apple Hospitality REIT last dividend was issued on the 30th of January 2026. The entity had 1:2 split on the 18th of May 2015. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple Hospitality to cross-verify your projections.Apple Hospitality Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Apple Hospitality's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Apple Hospitality's future price movements. Getting to know how Apple Hospitality's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Apple Hospitality may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLDT | Chatham Lodging Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.12 | 0.08 | 3.07 | (2.12) | 7.58 | |
| HST | Host Hotels Resorts | 0.02 | 10 per month | 1.08 | 0.14 | 2.65 | (2.03) | 9.68 | |
| PK | Park Hotels Resorts | (0.06) | 11 per month | 1.51 | 0.07 | 4.34 | (2.60) | 9.95 | |
| SHO | Sunstone Hotel Investors | (0.31) | 7 per month | 1.64 | (0.03) | 2.40 | (2.77) | 8.32 | |
| RHP | Ryman Hospitality Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.01 | (0.01) | 2.41 | (1.67) | 6.96 | |
| LTC | LTC Properties | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | (0.01) | 1.52 | (1.62) | 4.34 | |
| EPR | EPR Properties | (0.33) | 9 per month | 0.88 | 0.09 | 2.02 | (1.59) | 6.04 | |
| STAG | STAG Industrial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.79 | (0.06) | 1.61 | (1.35) | 3.62 | |
| WSR | Whitestone REIT | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.73 | 0.10 | 1.77 | (1.35) | 4.95 |
Other Forecasting Options for Apple Hospitality
For every potential investor in Apple, whether a beginner or expert, Apple Hospitality's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Apple Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Apple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Apple Hospitality's price trends.Apple Hospitality Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Apple Hospitality stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Apple Hospitality could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Apple Hospitality by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Apple Hospitality Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Apple Hospitality stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Apple Hospitality shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Apple Hospitality stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Apple Hospitality REIT entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 22579.3 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.9091 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.12 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.16 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.2 |
Apple Hospitality Risk Indicators
The analysis of Apple Hospitality's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Apple Hospitality's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting apple stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Variance | 1.9 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.29) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Apple Hospitality
The number of cover stories for Apple Hospitality depends on current market conditions and Apple Hospitality's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Apple Hospitality is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Apple Hospitality's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Apple Hospitality Short Properties
Apple Hospitality's future price predictability will typically decrease when Apple Hospitality's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Apple Hospitality REIT often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Apple Hospitality's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apple Hospitality's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 241.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Apple Hospitality to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Will Hotel & Resort REITs sector continue expanding? Could Apple diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apple Hospitality. If investors know Apple will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Apple Hospitality data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
The market value of Apple Hospitality REIT is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apple that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apple Hospitality's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apple Hospitality's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Apple Hospitality's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apple Hospitality's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Apple Hospitality's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Apple Hospitality represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Apple Hospitality's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.