Applied Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| APLT Stock | USD 9.63 0.36 3.88% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 8.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.95. Applied Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Applied |
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Applied Therapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter 122.2 M | Current Value 98.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 36 M |
Applied Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Applied Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 8.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.47, mean absolute percentage error of 0.36, and the sum of the absolute errors of 28.95.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Therapeutics | Applied Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Applied Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.1 and 17.84, respectively. We have considered Applied Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0947 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4745 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0649 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 28.947 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Applied Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Therapeutics' price trends.View Applied Therapeutics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Applied Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Applied Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.45 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 9.17 | |||
| Variance | 84.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 19.19 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.89 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Thematic Opportunities
Explore Investment Opportunities
Additional Tools for Applied Stock Analysis
When running Applied Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Applied Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.