Applied Therapeutics Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| APLT Stock | USD 0.10 0 4.60% |
Applied Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The RSI of Applied Therapeutics' share price is below 30 at this time. This suggests that the stock is becoming oversold or undervalued. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Applied Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 26
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.14) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.54) | EPS Estimate Next Year (0.40) | Wall Street Target Price 0.25 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.14) |
Using Applied Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Applied Therapeutics from the perspective of Applied Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Applied Therapeutics using Applied Therapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Applied using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Applied Therapeutics' stock price.
Applied Therapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Applied Therapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Applied Therapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Applied Therapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 0.4647 | Short Percent 0.0247 | Short Ratio 0.3 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.6 M | 50 Day MA 0.1537 |
Applied Relative Strength Index
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Applied Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.36.Applied Therapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Applied Therapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Applied. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Applied can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Applied Therapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Applied Therapeutics' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Applied Therapeutics.
Applied Therapeutics Implied Volatility | 3.58 |
Applied Therapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Applied Therapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Applied Therapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Applied Therapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Applied Therapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Applied Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.36. Applied Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 0.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Applied contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Applied Therapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.22% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Applied Therapeutics trading at USD 0.1046, that is roughly USD 2.34E-4 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Applied Therapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Applied Therapeutics options at the current volatility level of 3.58%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Applied Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Applied Therapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Applied Therapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Applied Therapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Applied Therapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Applied Therapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Applied Therapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Applied. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Applied Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Applied price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Applied using various technical indicators. When you analyze Applied charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Applied Therapeutics Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Applied Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.06, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Applied Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Therapeutics | Applied Therapeutics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Applied Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Applied Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Applied Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 12.94, respectively. We have considered Applied Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3366 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0551 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.2355 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.3636 |
Predictive Modules for Applied Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Applied Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Applied Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Applied Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Applied Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Applied Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Applied Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Applied Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Applied Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Applied Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 13.01, respectively. We have considered Applied Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Applied Therapeutics is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Applied Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Applied Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Applied Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Applied Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Applied Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.43 | 12.91 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 12 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.10 | 0.10 | 4.40 |
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Applied Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Applied Therapeutics is presently traded for 0.10. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.36. Applied is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.1. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.4%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -2.43%. The volatility of related hype on Applied Therapeutics is about 8664.43%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.46. About 69.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.1. Applied Therapeutics had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Applied Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Applied Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Applied Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Applied Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Applied Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Applied Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MOLN | Molecular Partners AG | 0.07 | 7 per month | 3.31 | 0.07 | 4.73 | (5.45) | 26.47 | |
| ELTX | Elicio Therapeutics | 0.26 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 5.50 | (4.34) | 21.98 | |
| CRBP | Corbus Pharmaceuticals Holding | (0.56) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 4.60 | (8.42) | 26.74 | |
| CRDF | Cardiff Oncology | 0.02 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.28 | (6.82) | 45.59 | |
| PEPG | PepGen | 0.69 | 7 per month | 6.07 | 0.01 | 10.14 | (9.44) | 25.08 | |
| MIST | Milestone Pharmaceuticals | (0.07) | 8 per month | 4.19 | 0.01 | 6.15 | (5.80) | 34.31 | |
| RANI | Rani Therapeutics Holdings | 0.12 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 9.28 | (11.01) | 63.72 | |
| NKTX | Nkarta Inc | (0.07) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.31 | (5.31) | 12.70 | |
| SAVA | Cassava Sciences | (0.12) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 9.05 | (7.56) | 35.02 | |
| FBRX | Forte Biosciences | 1.15 | 7 per month | 6.24 | 0.19 | 13.16 | (9.14) | 40.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Applied, whether a beginner or expert, Applied Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Applied Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Applied. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Applied Therapeutics' price trends.Applied Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Applied Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Applied Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Applied Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Applied Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Applied Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Applied Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Applied Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Applied Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Applied Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Applied Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting applied stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 12.47 | |||
| Variance | 155.38 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applied Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Applied Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Applied Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Applied Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Applied Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Applied Therapeutics Short Properties
Applied Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Applied Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Applied Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Applied Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Applied Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 139.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 79.4 M |
Additional Tools for Applied Stock Analysis
When running Applied Therapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Applied Therapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Applied Therapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Applied Therapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Applied Therapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Applied Therapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Applied Therapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.