Aptorum Group Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| APM Stock | USD 0.98 0.04 3.92% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Aptorum Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 0.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.56. Aptorum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Aptorum Group's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aptorum Group's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aptorum Group fundamentals over time.
As of now the rsi of Aptorum Group's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Wall Street Target Price 80 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (1.00) |
Using Aptorum Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aptorum Group Ltd from the perspective of Aptorum Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Aptorum Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 0.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.56. Aptorum Group after-hype prediction price | USD 0.98 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptorum Group to cross-verify your projections. Aptorum Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aptorum price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aptorum using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aptorum charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aptorum Group Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Aptorum Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 0.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aptorum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aptorum Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aptorum Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aptorum Group | Aptorum Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aptorum Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aptorum Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aptorum Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 5.05, respectively. We have considered Aptorum Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aptorum Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aptorum Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0419 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0325 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.5565 |
Predictive Modules for Aptorum Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptorum Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aptorum Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aptorum Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aptorum Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aptorum Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aptorum Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aptorum Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aptorum Group's historical news coverage. Aptorum Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 5.05, respectively. We have considered Aptorum Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aptorum Group is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aptorum Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aptorum Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aptorum Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aptorum Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aptorum Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.62 | 4.07 | 0.09 | 0.23 | 16 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.98 | 0.98 | 0.00 |
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Aptorum Group Hype Timeline
On the 24th of January Aptorum Group is traded for 0.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.09, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.23. Aptorum is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.62%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aptorum Group is about 1102.98%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.75. About 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.35. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aptorum Group recorded a loss per share of 0.31. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 23rd of January 2023. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptorum Group to cross-verify your projections.Aptorum Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aptorum Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aptorum Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Aptorum Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aptorum Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MRKR | Marker Therapeutics | 0.02 | 14 per month | 4.44 | 0.19 | 12.79 | (7.04) | 26.24 | |
| MBIO | Mustang Bio | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 7.00 | (6.31) | 21.51 | |
| CING | Cingulate | 0.04 | 8 per month | 4.51 | 0.09 | 7.46 | (6.75) | 20.19 | |
| CLRB | Cellectar Biosciences | (1.61) | 2 per month | 5.97 | (0.01) | 7.66 | (10.25) | 30.55 | |
| IMRN | Immuron Ltd ADR | 0.02 | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 5.88 | (12.72) | 36.62 | |
| AEON | AEON Biopharma | 0.18 | 10 per month | 5.84 | 0.01 | 10.34 | (10.67) | 33.74 | |
| BOLT | Bolt Biotherapeutics | 0.10 | 8 per month | 3.76 | 0.05 | 8.13 | (7.17) | 18.19 | |
| COCP | Cocrystal Pharma | 0.02 | 8 per month | 3.09 | (0.02) | 7.45 | (6.36) | 18.39 | |
| EVGN | Evogene | (0.02) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.77 | (5.22) | 21.65 | |
| LYRA | Lyra Therapeutics | (2.46) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 7.51 | (9.00) | 66.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aptorum Group
For every potential investor in Aptorum, whether a beginner or expert, Aptorum Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aptorum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aptorum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aptorum Group's price trends.Aptorum Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aptorum Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aptorum Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aptorum Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aptorum Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aptorum Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aptorum Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aptorum Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aptorum Group Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aptorum Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aptorum Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aptorum Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aptorum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.02 | |||
| Variance | 16.18 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aptorum Group
The number of cover stories for Aptorum Group depends on current market conditions and Aptorum Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aptorum Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aptorum Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aptorum Group Short Properties
Aptorum Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aptorum Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aptorum Group Ltd often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aptorum Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aptorum Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 874.2 K |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptorum Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aptorum Group. If investors know Aptorum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aptorum Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aptorum Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aptorum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aptorum Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aptorum Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aptorum Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aptorum Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aptorum Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aptorum Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aptorum Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.