Aperam SA OTC Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| APMSF Stock | USD 30.50 0.00 0.00% |
Aperam OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aperam SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026 The value of RSI of Aperam SA's share price is above 80 . This suggests that the otc stock is significantly overbought by investors. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 100
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aperam SA based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Aperam SA hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aperam SA from the perspective of Aperam SA response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aperam SA on the next trading day is expected to be 30.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.59. Aperam SA after-hype prediction price | USD 30.5 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aperam |
Aperam SA Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aperam price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aperam using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aperam charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aperam SA Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aperam SA on the next trading day is expected to be 30.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aperam OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aperam SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aperam SA OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aperam SA | Aperam SA Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aperam SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aperam SA's OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aperam SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.25 and 30.75, respectively. We have considered Aperam SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aperam SA otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aperam SA otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.01 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.01 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 3.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.59 |
Predictive Modules for Aperam SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aperam SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aperam SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aperam SA After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aperam SA at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aperam SA or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Aperam SA, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aperam SA Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aperam SA's otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aperam SA's historical news coverage. Aperam SA's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.25 and 30.75, respectively. We have considered Aperam SA's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aperam SA is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aperam SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aperam SA OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Aperam SA is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aperam SA backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aperam SA, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
30.50 | 30.50 | 0.00 |
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Aperam SA Hype Timeline
Aperam SA is presently traded for 30.50. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.09. Aperam is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aperam SA is about 8.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.41. About 40.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.58. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aperam SA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 14.89. The entity last dividend was issued on the 14th of November 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aperam SA to cross-verify your projections.Aperam SA Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aperam SA's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aperam SA's future price movements. Getting to know how Aperam SA's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aperam SA may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIAFF | Champion Iron Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.85 | 0.23 | 4.63 | (2.30) | 14.80 | |
| SZGPY | Salzgitter AG ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.39 | 0.21 | 8.45 | (4.86) | 20.48 | |
| SMSMY | Sims Metal Management | (12.72) | 2 per month | 2.06 | 0.18 | 5.77 | (3.85) | 17.13 | |
| ZEOOF | Zeon Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| WDOFF | Wesdome Gold Mines | (17.70) | 1 per month | 3.25 | 0.05 | 4.53 | (4.85) | 13.89 | |
| ANGGF | Angang Steel | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.15 | |
| MIMTF | Mitsubishi Materials | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.67 | |
| SMUPF | Sims Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 7.90 | 0.00 | 38.22 | |
| PAFRF | Pan African Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.17 | 5.26 | 0.00 | 35.36 | |
| ZEOOY | Zeon Corporation | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aperam SA
For every potential investor in Aperam, whether a beginner or expert, Aperam SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aperam OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aperam. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aperam SA's price trends.Aperam SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aperam SA otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aperam SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aperam SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aperam SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aperam SA otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aperam SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aperam SA otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aperam SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aperam SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aperam SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aperam SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aperam otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.0589 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2428 | |||
| Variance | 0.059 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aperam SA
The number of cover stories for Aperam SA depends on current market conditions and Aperam SA's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aperam SA is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aperam SA's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Aperam SA Short Properties
Aperam SA's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aperam SA's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aperam SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aperam SA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aperam SA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.9 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 258 M |
Other Information on Investing in Aperam OTC Stock
Aperam SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aperam OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aperam with respect to the benefits of owning Aperam SA security.