Aprea Therapeutics Stock Forward View

APRE Stock  USD 0.62  0.05  7.46%   
Aprea Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aprea Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Aprea Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Aprea Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the rsi of Aprea Therapeutics' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Aprea Therapeutics' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Aprea Therapeutics and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Aprea Therapeutics' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aprea Therapeutics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Aprea Therapeutics' stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
(0.10)
EPS Estimate Current Year
(1.96)
EPS Estimate Next Year
(0.74)
Wall Street Target Price
6.6667
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.99)
Using Aprea Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aprea Therapeutics from the perspective of Aprea Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aprea Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.13.

Aprea Therapeutics after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.59  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aprea Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Aprea Stock refer to our How to Trade Aprea Stock guide.

Aprea Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aprea price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aprea using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aprea charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

Aprea Therapeutics Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Aprea Therapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
First Reported
2018-09-30
Previous Quarter
16.5 M
Current Value
13.7 M
Quarterly Volatility
32.8 M
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Aprea Therapeutics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aprea Therapeutics value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aprea Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 8th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aprea Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 0.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.13.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aprea Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aprea Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aprea Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aprea Therapeutics  Aprea Therapeutics Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Aprea Therapeutics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aprea Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aprea Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 7.31, respectively. We have considered Aprea Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.62
0.57
Expected Value
7.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aprea Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aprea Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.0408
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0349
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0369
SAESum of the absolute errors2.1269
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aprea Therapeutics. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aprea Therapeutics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aprea Therapeutics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aprea Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.597.33
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.112.138.87
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
6.076.677.40
Details

Aprea Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aprea Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aprea Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aprea Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Aprea Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aprea Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aprea Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Aprea Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 7.33, respectively. We have considered Aprea Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.62
0.59
After-hype Price
7.33
Upside
Aprea Therapeutics is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aprea Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aprea Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aprea Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aprea Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aprea Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.96 
6.74
  0.03 
 0.00  
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.62
0.59
4.84 
22,467  
Notes

Aprea Therapeutics Hype Timeline

Aprea Therapeutics is presently traded for 0.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Aprea is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.59. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -4.84%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.96%. The volatility of related hype on Aprea Therapeutics is about 337000.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.62. About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.42. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aprea Therapeutics recorded a loss per share of 2.12. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:20 split on the 13th of February 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aprea Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Aprea Stock refer to our How to Trade Aprea Stock guide.

Aprea Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aprea Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aprea Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Aprea Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aprea Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ACXPAcurx Pharmaceuticals LLC(0.05)5 per month 0.00 (0.16) 10.84 (8.06) 49.19 
BCDABiocardia 0.02 9 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.93 (6.03) 17.38 
KPRXKiora Pharmaceuticals(0.15)6 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.32 (5.19) 16.69 
GLTOGalecto 0.69 7 per month 6.96  0.13  17.97 (14.66) 273.14 
ADILAdial Pharmaceuticals(0.22)8 per month 0.00 (0.31) 5.70 (8.24) 34.48 
INABIn8bio Inc(0.03)7 per month 5.06  0.02  14.29 (9.18) 37.96 
CELZCreative Medical Technology(0.06)7 per month 0.00 (0.11) 8.61 (9.64) 25.03 
HCWBHCW Biologics(0.16)7 per month 0.00 (0.23) 13.02 (11.97) 41.72 
APVOAptevo Therapeutics 0.52 9 per month 0.00 (0.28) 7.81 (10.34) 43.37 
RNAZTranscode Therapeutics(0.58)7 per month 0.00 (0.04) 9.74 (8.73) 34.47 

Other Forecasting Options for Aprea Therapeutics

For every potential investor in Aprea, whether a beginner or expert, Aprea Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aprea Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aprea. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aprea Therapeutics' price trends.

Aprea Therapeutics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aprea Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aprea Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aprea Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aprea Therapeutics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aprea Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aprea Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aprea Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aprea Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aprea Therapeutics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aprea Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aprea Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aprea stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Aprea Therapeutics

The number of cover stories for Aprea Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Aprea Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aprea Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aprea Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Aprea Therapeutics Short Properties

Aprea Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aprea Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aprea Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aprea Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aprea Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding5.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments22.8 M
When determining whether Aprea Therapeutics is a strong investment it is important to analyze Aprea Therapeutics' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Aprea Therapeutics' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Aprea Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aprea Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Aprea Stock refer to our How to Trade Aprea Stock guide.
You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Will Biotechnology sector continue expanding? Could Aprea diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aprea Therapeutics. If investors know Aprea will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Aprea Therapeutics data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Earnings Share
(2.12)
Revenue Per Share
0.08
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.99)
Return On Assets
(0.42)
Return On Equity
(0.75)
Understanding Aprea Therapeutics requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Aprea's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Aprea Therapeutics' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Aprea Therapeutics' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Aprea Therapeutics' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Aprea Therapeutics represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Aprea Therapeutics' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.