Aptevo Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| APVO Stock | USD 8.81 0.17 1.89% |
Aptevo Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Aptevo Therapeutics' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Aptevo Therapeutics' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Aptevo Therapeutics fundamentals over time.
As of today, the RSI of Aptevo Therapeutics' share price is approaching 31. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aptevo Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 31
Sell Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (1.90) | EPS Estimate Current Year (96.84) | EPS Estimate Next Year (28.80) | Wall Street Target Price 377.9997 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (2.09) |
Using Aptevo Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aptevo Therapeutics from the perspective of Aptevo Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aptevo Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 6.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.26 and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.83. Aptevo Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 6.86 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptevo Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Aptevo Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aptevo price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aptevo using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aptevo charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aptevo Therapeutics Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Aptevo Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 6.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.26, mean absolute percentage error of 7.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aptevo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aptevo Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aptevo Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aptevo Therapeutics | Aptevo Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aptevo Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aptevo Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aptevo Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.10 and 13.51, respectively. We have considered Aptevo Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aptevo Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aptevo Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0592 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2595 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1517 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 137.8297 |
Predictive Modules for Aptevo Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aptevo Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aptevo Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aptevo Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aptevo Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aptevo Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aptevo Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aptevo Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aptevo Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aptevo Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Aptevo Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 13.57, respectively. We have considered Aptevo Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aptevo Therapeutics is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aptevo Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aptevo Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aptevo Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aptevo Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aptevo Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.50 | 6.70 | 2.16 | 0.01 | 6 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.81 | 6.86 | 23.61 |
|
Aptevo Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Aptevo Therapeutics is presently traded for 8.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.16, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Aptevo is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 6.86. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -23.61%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -1.5%. The volatility of related hype on Aptevo Therapeutics is about 126415.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.80. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.52. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aptevo Therapeutics recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7758.2. The entity last dividend was issued on the 27th of March 2020. The firm had 1:18 split on the 30th of December 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptevo Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Aptevo Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aptevo Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aptevo Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Aptevo Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aptevo Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| KPRX | Kiora Pharmaceuticals | (0.04) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 5.32 | (6.25) | 21.80 | |
| EPIX | ESSA Pharma | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.00 | (5.00) | 75.44 | |
| HCWB | HCW Biologics | (0.50) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 13.02 | (11.97) | 41.72 | |
| ABP | Abpro Holdings | 0.55 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 6.38 | (10.53) | 31.47 | |
| MTNB | Matinas BioPharma Holdings | 0.05 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 11.67 | (10.67) | 39.32 | |
| INAB | In8bio Inc | (0.03) | 8 per month | 4.77 | 0.05 | 14.29 | (9.18) | 37.96 | |
| RADX | Radiopharm Theranostics Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 8.09 | 0.04 | 7.44 | (9.23) | 193.18 | |
| BCDA | Biocardia | (0.06) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.93 | (5.76) | 21.46 | |
| CERO | CERo Therapeutics Holdings | 0.02 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 20.00 | (17.65) | 94.69 | |
| ERNA | Eterna Therapeutics | (0.06) | 6 per month | 4.73 | 0.01 | 12.10 | (7.41) | 51.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aptevo Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Aptevo, whether a beginner or expert, Aptevo Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aptevo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aptevo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aptevo Therapeutics' price trends.Aptevo Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aptevo Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aptevo Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aptevo Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aptevo Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aptevo Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aptevo Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aptevo Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aptevo Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Aptevo Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aptevo Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aptevo Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aptevo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.51 | |||
| Variance | 42.4 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aptevo Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Aptevo Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Aptevo Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aptevo Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aptevo Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Aptevo Therapeutics Short Properties
Aptevo Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Aptevo Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aptevo Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aptevo Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aptevo Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 767.05 | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aptevo Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Aptevo Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aptevo Therapeutics guide.You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aptevo Therapeutics. If investors know Aptevo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aptevo Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aptevo Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aptevo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aptevo Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aptevo Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aptevo Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aptevo Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aptevo Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aptevo Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aptevo Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.