ArcBest Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AQY Stock  EUR 104.00  3.00  2.97%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ArcBest on the next trading day is expected to be 102.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.57. ArcBest Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ArcBest's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for ArcBest is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ArcBest value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ArcBest Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ArcBest on the next trading day is expected to be 102.90 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.48, mean absolute percentage error of 10.87, and the sum of the absolute errors of 153.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ArcBest Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ArcBest's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ArcBest Stock Forecast Pattern

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ArcBest Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ArcBest's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ArcBest's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 99.94 and 105.86, respectively. We have considered ArcBest's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
104.00
102.90
Expected Value
105.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ArcBest stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ArcBest stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.3345
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.4769
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0247
SAESum of the absolute errors153.5672
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ArcBest. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ArcBest. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ArcBest

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ArcBest. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
101.04104.00106.96
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
100.36103.32106.28
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
90.50101.97113.43
Details

Other Forecasting Options for ArcBest

For every potential investor in ArcBest, whether a beginner or expert, ArcBest's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ArcBest Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ArcBest. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ArcBest's price trends.

ArcBest Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ArcBest stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ArcBest could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ArcBest by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ArcBest Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ArcBest's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ArcBest's current price.

ArcBest Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ArcBest stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ArcBest shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ArcBest stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ArcBest entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ArcBest Risk Indicators

The analysis of ArcBest's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ArcBest's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcbest stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Other Information on Investing in ArcBest Stock

ArcBest financial ratios help investors to determine whether ArcBest Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ArcBest with respect to the benefits of owning ArcBest security.