Aqr Risk-balanced Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

ARCIX Fund  USD 10.16  0.20  2.01%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aqr Risk Balanced Modities on the next trading day is expected to be 9.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.72. Aqr Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Aqr Risk-balanced's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Aqr Risk-balanced's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aqr Risk Balanced Modities, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Aqr Risk-balanced hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aqr Risk Balanced Modities from the perspective of Aqr Risk-balanced response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Aqr Risk Balanced Modities on the next trading day is expected to be 9.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.72.

Aqr Risk-balanced after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 10.16  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aqr Risk-balanced to cross-verify your projections.

Aqr Risk-balanced Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aqr price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aqr using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aqr charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Aqr Risk-balanced price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Aqr Risk-balanced Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Aqr Risk Balanced Modities on the next trading day is expected to be 9.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aqr Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aqr Risk-balanced's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aqr Risk-balanced Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aqr Risk-balancedAqr Risk-balanced Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Aqr Risk-balanced Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aqr Risk-balanced's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aqr Risk-balanced's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.93 and 10.64, respectively. We have considered Aqr Risk-balanced's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.16
9.78
Expected Value
10.64
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aqr Risk-balanced mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aqr Risk-balanced mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.4476
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1266
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0137
SAESum of the absolute errors7.7243
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Aqr Risk Balanced Modities historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Aqr Risk-balanced

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aqr Risk Balanced. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
9.3110.1611.01
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.0210.8711.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
8.749.4110.09
Details

Aqr Risk-balanced After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aqr Risk-balanced at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aqr Risk-balanced or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Aqr Risk-balanced, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Aqr Risk-balanced Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aqr Risk-balanced's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aqr Risk-balanced's historical news coverage. Aqr Risk-balanced's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.31 and 11.01, respectively. We have considered Aqr Risk-balanced's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
10.16
10.16
After-hype Price
11.01
Upside
Aqr Risk-balanced is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aqr Risk Balanced is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aqr Risk-balanced Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Aqr Risk-balanced is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aqr Risk-balanced backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aqr Risk-balanced, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.23 
0.85
  0.02 
  0.20 
3 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
10.16
10.16
0.00 
1,062  
Notes

Aqr Risk-balanced Hype Timeline

Aqr Risk Balanced is presently traded for 10.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.2. Aqr is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.23%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aqr Risk-balanced is about 95.68%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 9.96. The company last dividend was issued on the 23rd of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aqr Risk-balanced to cross-verify your projections.

Aqr Risk-balanced Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aqr Risk-balanced's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aqr Risk-balanced's future price movements. Getting to know how Aqr Risk-balanced's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aqr Risk-balanced may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Aqr Risk-balanced

For every potential investor in Aqr, whether a beginner or expert, Aqr Risk-balanced's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aqr Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aqr. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aqr Risk-balanced's price trends.

Aqr Risk-balanced Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aqr Risk-balanced mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aqr Risk-balanced could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aqr Risk-balanced by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aqr Risk-balanced Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aqr Risk-balanced mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aqr Risk-balanced shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aqr Risk-balanced mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aqr Risk Balanced Modities entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aqr Risk-balanced Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aqr Risk-balanced's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aqr Risk-balanced's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aqr mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Aqr Risk-balanced

The number of cover stories for Aqr Risk-balanced depends on current market conditions and Aqr Risk-balanced's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aqr Risk-balanced is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aqr Risk-balanced's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Aqr Mutual Fund

Aqr Risk-balanced financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aqr Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aqr with respect to the benefits of owning Aqr Risk-balanced security.
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