Arcelik AS Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| ARCLK Stock | TRY 143.50 0.50 0.35% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Arcelik AS on the next trading day is expected to be 143.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 201.25. Arcelik Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arcelik AS's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Arcelik |
Arcelik AS 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Arcelik AS on the next trading day is expected to be 143.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.53, mean absolute percentage error of 18.83, and the sum of the absolute errors of 201.25.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcelik Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcelik AS's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arcelik AS Stock Forecast Pattern
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Arcelik AS Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arcelik AS's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arcelik AS's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 141.15 and 145.60, respectively. We have considered Arcelik AS's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcelik AS stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcelik AS stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6942 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0132 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.5307 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0257 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 201.25 |
Predictive Modules for Arcelik AS
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcelik AS. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Arcelik AS
For every potential investor in Arcelik, whether a beginner or expert, Arcelik AS's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arcelik Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arcelik. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arcelik AS's price trends.Arcelik AS Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arcelik AS stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arcelik AS could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arcelik AS by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcelik AS Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arcelik AS's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arcelik AS's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arcelik AS Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arcelik AS stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arcelik AS shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arcelik AS stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arcelik AS entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arcelik AS Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arcelik AS's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arcelik AS's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcelik stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.76 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.4 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.53) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Arcelik Stock
Arcelik AS financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arcelik Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arcelik with respect to the benefits of owning Arcelik AS security.