Ariel Focus Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

Ariel Focus Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ariel price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ariel using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ariel charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur. A naive forecasting model for Ariel Focus is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Ariel Focus Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Ariel Focus Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ariel Focus Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 18.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.10, and the sum of the absolute errors of 14.31.

Ariel Focus Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Ariel Focus Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ariel Focus mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ariel Focus mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Ariel Focus Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Ariel Focus. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Ariel Focus

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ariel Focus Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 14.34 16.30 20.83 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 17.61 19.57 21.53 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 14.23 17.05 19.88 Details

Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ariel Focus. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ariel Focus' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ariel Focus' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ariel Focus Fund.

Ariel Focus After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

Ariel Focus Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

Ariel Focus Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Ariel Focus Hype Timeline

Ariel Focus Fund is presently traded for 18.81. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.47. Ariel is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 16.3. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -13.94%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on Ariel Focus is about 153.54%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.34. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.95. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ariel Focus Fund last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ariel Focus to cross-verify your projections.

Ariel Focus Related Hype Analysis

Other Forecasting Options for Ariel Focus

For every potential investor in Ariel, whether a beginner or expert, Ariel Focus' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ariel Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ariel. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ariel Focus' price trends.

Ariel Focus Related Equities

Risk & Return

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