Aristotle Funds Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ARIBX Fund | USD 15.74 0.36 2.34% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aristotle Funds Series on the next trading day is expected to be 15.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.78. Aristotle Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Aristotle Funds' mutual fund price is slightly above 67. This suggests that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aristotle, making its price go up or down. Momentum 67
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aristotle Funds hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aristotle Funds Series from the perspective of Aristotle Funds response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aristotle Funds Series on the next trading day is expected to be 15.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.78. Aristotle Funds after-hype prediction price | USD 15.74 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aristotle |
Aristotle Funds Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aristotle price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aristotle using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aristotle charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aristotle Funds Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aristotle Funds Series on the next trading day is expected to be 15.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.78.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aristotle Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aristotle Funds' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aristotle Funds Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aristotle Funds | Aristotle Funds Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aristotle Funds Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aristotle Funds' Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aristotle Funds' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.49 and 16.99, respectively. We have considered Aristotle Funds' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aristotle Funds mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aristotle Funds mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.8266 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.035 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.113 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.78 |
Predictive Modules for Aristotle Funds
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aristotle Funds Series. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aristotle Funds After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aristotle Funds at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aristotle Funds or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Aristotle Funds, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aristotle Funds Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aristotle Funds' mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aristotle Funds' historical news coverage. Aristotle Funds' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.49 and 16.99, respectively. We have considered Aristotle Funds' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aristotle Funds is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aristotle Funds Series is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aristotle Funds Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Aristotle Funds is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aristotle Funds backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aristotle Funds, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.24 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.74 | 15.74 | 0.00 |
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Aristotle Funds Hype Timeline
Aristotle Funds Series is presently traded for 15.74. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.45. Aristotle is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aristotle Funds is about 65.96%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.19. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aristotle Funds to cross-verify your projections.Aristotle Funds Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aristotle Funds' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aristotle Funds' future price movements. Getting to know how Aristotle Funds' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aristotle Funds may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OWMBX | Old Westbury Municipal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (1.27) | 0.09 | (0.09) | 0.43 | |
| TIMTX | Transamerica Intermediate Muni | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.80) | 0.19 | (0.09) | 0.56 | |
| FCSCX | Franklin Adjustable Government | 11.76 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (1.02) | 0.13 | (0.13) | 0.53 | |
| NSIOX | Nuveen Strategic Municipal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.02 | (0.80) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.81 | |
| NUVBX | Nuveen Intermediate Duration | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.88) | 0.22 | (0.11) | 0.67 | |
| JHFMX | Jhancock Mgd Acct | 0.01 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.63) | 0.20 | (0.20) | 0.71 | |
| TWACX | Short Term Government Fund | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (1.18) | 0.11 | (0.11) | 0.33 | |
| GTCCX | Gamco Global Telecommunications | 3.39 | 3 per month | 0.57 | 0.08 | 2.01 | (1.46) | 17.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aristotle Funds
For every potential investor in Aristotle, whether a beginner or expert, Aristotle Funds' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aristotle Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aristotle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aristotle Funds' price trends.Aristotle Funds Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aristotle Funds mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aristotle Funds could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aristotle Funds by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aristotle Funds Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aristotle Funds mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aristotle Funds shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aristotle Funds mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aristotle Funds Series entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 15.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 15.74 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.18 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.36 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 67.81 |
Aristotle Funds Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aristotle Funds' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aristotle Funds' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aristotle mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.804 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4748 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.25 | |||
| Variance | 1.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.687 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2254 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aristotle Funds
The number of cover stories for Aristotle Funds depends on current market conditions and Aristotle Funds' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aristotle Funds is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aristotle Funds' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Aristotle Mutual Fund
Aristotle Funds financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aristotle Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aristotle with respect to the benefits of owning Aristotle Funds security.
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