Arconic Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Arconic is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Arconic value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Arconic Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arconic on the next trading day is expected to be 30.11 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.30, mean absolute percentage error of 0.50, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.55.

Arconic Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arconic stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arconic stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Arconic. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Arconic. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Arconic

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arconic. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 29.82 29.82 29.82 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 23.80 23.80 32.80 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 29.27 29.59 29.91 Details

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Risk & Return

Correlation

Arconic Market Strength Events

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Consideration for investing in Arconic Stock