Arctic Paper Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ARP Stock | SEK 20.90 0.45 2.11% |
Arctic Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Arctic Paper's share price is approaching 44. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arctic Paper, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Arctic Paper hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arctic Paper SA from the perspective of Arctic Paper response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arctic Paper SA on the next trading day is expected to be 20.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.35. Arctic Paper after-hype prediction price | SEK 20.9 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Arctic |
Arctic Paper Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arctic price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arctic using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arctic charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Arctic Paper Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arctic Paper SA on the next trading day is expected to be 20.81 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37, mean absolute percentage error of 0.29, and the sum of the absolute errors of 22.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arctic Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arctic Paper's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arctic Paper Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arctic Paper | Arctic Paper Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arctic Paper Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arctic Paper's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arctic Paper's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.68 and 22.94, respectively. We have considered Arctic Paper's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arctic Paper stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arctic Paper stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0869 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3725 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0173 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 22.3516 |
Predictive Modules for Arctic Paper
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arctic Paper SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arctic Paper After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arctic Paper at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arctic Paper or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arctic Paper, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arctic Paper Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arctic Paper's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arctic Paper's historical news coverage. Arctic Paper's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.78 and 23.02, respectively. We have considered Arctic Paper's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arctic Paper is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arctic Paper SA is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arctic Paper Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arctic Paper is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arctic Paper backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arctic Paper, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.90 | 20.90 | 0.00 |
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Arctic Paper Hype Timeline
Arctic Paper SA is presently traded for 20.90on Stockholm Exchange of Sweden. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Arctic is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arctic Paper is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.90. About 68.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.87. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Arctic Paper SA recorded earning per share (EPS) of 20.27. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arctic Paper to cross-verify your projections.Arctic Paper Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arctic Paper's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arctic Paper's future price movements. Getting to know how Arctic Paper's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arctic Paper may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ARPL | Arla Plast AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.02 | (3.25) | 20.14 | |
| RROS | Rottneros AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 3.42 | (4.07) | 21.60 | |
| VISC | Gruvaktiebolaget Viscaria | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.30 | 0 | 8.06 | (7.46) | 24.15 | |
| LUC | Lucara Diamond Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.27 | 0.08 | 5.19 | (4.51) | 41.80 | |
| BOTX | Botnia Gold AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.73 | 0.04 | 6.36 | (4.49) | 16.39 | |
| NIO | Nordic Iron Ore | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.66 | 0.03 | 5.20 | (4.36) | 13.84 | |
| BEGR | BE Group AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.93 | (0.03) | 3.18 | (3.46) | 11.33 | |
| ARCT | Arctic Gold Publ | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.55 | 0.16 | 20.20 | (7.63) | 65.79 | |
| NEXAM | Nexam Chemical Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.59 | (6.27) | 39.77 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arctic Paper
For every potential investor in Arctic, whether a beginner or expert, Arctic Paper's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arctic Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arctic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arctic Paper's price trends.Arctic Paper Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arctic Paper stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arctic Paper could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arctic Paper by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arctic Paper Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arctic Paper stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arctic Paper shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arctic Paper stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arctic Paper SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arctic Paper Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arctic Paper's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arctic Paper's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arctic stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.61 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arctic Paper
The number of cover stories for Arctic Paper depends on current market conditions and Arctic Paper's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arctic Paper is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arctic Paper's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arctic Paper Short Properties
Arctic Paper's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arctic Paper's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arctic Paper SA often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arctic Paper's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arctic Paper's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 69.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 265.3 M |
Additional Tools for Arctic Stock Analysis
When running Arctic Paper's price analysis, check to measure Arctic Paper's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arctic Paper is operating at the current time. Most of Arctic Paper's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arctic Paper's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arctic Paper's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arctic Paper to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.