Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ARQT Stock | USD 26.20 0.45 1.69% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.11. Arcutis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.02) | EPS Estimate Current Year (0.15) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.4729 | Wall Street Target Price 30.8571 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.10) |
Using Arcutis Biotherapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics from the perspective of Arcutis Biotherapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arcutis Biotherapeutics using Arcutis Biotherapeutics' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arcutis using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' stock price.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Short Interest
An investor who is long Arcutis Biotherapeutics may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arcutis Biotherapeutics and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arcutis Biotherapeutics with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 19.2669 | Short Percent 0.1506 | Short Ratio 7.7 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.2 M | 50 Day MA 28.3196 |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arcutis Biotherapeutics' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arcutis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arcutis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arcutis Biotherapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Implied Volatility | 1.54 |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arcutis Biotherapeutics' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arcutis Biotherapeutics' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.11. Arcutis Biotherapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 28.57 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcutis Biotherapeutics to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arcutis contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arcutis Biotherapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0963% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Arcutis Biotherapeutics trading at USD 26.2, that is roughly USD 0.0252 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arcutis Biotherapeutics' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arcutis Biotherapeutics options at the current volatility level of 1.54%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Arcutis Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arcutis Biotherapeutics' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arcutis Biotherapeutics' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arcutis Biotherapeutics' open interest, investors have to compare it to Arcutis Biotherapeutics' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arcutis Biotherapeutics is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arcutis. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arcutis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arcutis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arcutis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Arcutis Biotherapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-03-31 | Previous Quarter 73 M | Current Value 47.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 65.5 M |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arcutis Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 24.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.90, mean absolute percentage error of 1.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.11.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcutis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcutis Biotherapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcutis Biotherapeutics | Arcutis Biotherapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Arcutis Biotherapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.89 and 28.90, respectively. We have considered Arcutis Biotherapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.251 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9034 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0329 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.1074 |
Predictive Modules for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arcutis Biotherapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Arcutis Biotherapeutics After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Arcutis Biotherapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arcutis Biotherapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Arcutis Biotherapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Arcutis Biotherapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arcutis Biotherapeutics' historical news coverage. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 24.06 and 33.08, respectively. We have considered Arcutis Biotherapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Arcutis Biotherapeutics is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arcutis Biotherapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Arcutis Biotherapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arcutis Biotherapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arcutis Biotherapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.56 | 4.51 | 0.01 | 0.44 | 15 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 15 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
26.20 | 28.57 | 9.05 |
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Arcutis Biotherapeutics Hype Timeline
Arcutis Biotherapeutics is presently traded for 26.20. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.44. Arcutis is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 28.57 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 9.05%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.56%. The volatility of related hype on Arcutis Biotherapeutics is about 578.95%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.76. The company has return on total asset (ROA) of (0.0591) % which means that it has lost $0.0591 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of (0.2817) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Arcutis Biotherapeutics manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Return On Tangible Assets is likely to drop to -0.39 in 2026. Return On Capital Employed is likely to drop to -0.45 in 2026. Total Current Liabilities is likely to gain to about 97.8 M in 2026, whereas Liabilities And Stockholders Equity is likely to drop slightly above 276.1 M in 2026. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 15 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arcutis Biotherapeutics to cross-verify your projections.Arcutis Biotherapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Arcutis Biotherapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Arcutis Biotherapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arcutis Biotherapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TARS | Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | (1.82) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.78 | (3.41) | 10.59 | |
| FOLD | Amicus Therapeutics | (0.04) | 15 per month | 0.00 | 0.20 | 3.45 | (1.31) | 30.77 | |
| TVTX | Travere Therapeutics | (0.93) | 11 per month | 3.37 | 0.02 | 6.09 | (5.47) | 33.22 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | (0.04) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.56 | (4.21) | 10.32 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | 0.74 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | (0.39) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 4.33 | (4.35) | 16.19 | |
| CGON | CG Oncology Common | (0.83) | 8 per month | 2.58 | 0.07 | 5.15 | (4.40) | 33.66 | |
| CNTA | Centessa Pharmaceuticals PLC | (0.55) | 7 per month | 2.50 | 0.04 | 4.97 | (4.08) | 26.54 | |
| XENE | Xenon Pharmaceuticals | (2.30) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 3.78 | (2.71) | 10.56 | |
| CELC | Celcuity LLC | (1.63) | 9 per month | 2.29 | 0.19 | 7.55 | (3.96) | 17.89 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
For every potential investor in Arcutis, whether a beginner or expert, Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arcutis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arcutis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price trends.Arcutis Biotherapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arcutis Biotherapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arcutis Biotherapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arcutis Biotherapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arcutis Biotherapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arcutis Biotherapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arcutis Biotherapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arcutis Biotherapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arcutis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.7 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.42 | |||
| Variance | 19.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.84 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.66 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arcutis Biotherapeutics
The number of cover stories for Arcutis Biotherapeutics depends on current market conditions and Arcutis Biotherapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arcutis Biotherapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arcutis Biotherapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arcutis Biotherapeutics Short Properties
Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Arcutis Biotherapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arcutis Biotherapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arcutis Biotherapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arcutis Biotherapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 121 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 228 M |
Additional Tools for Arcutis Stock Analysis
When running Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price analysis, check to measure Arcutis Biotherapeutics' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arcutis Biotherapeutics is operating at the current time. Most of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arcutis Biotherapeutics' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arcutis Biotherapeutics' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arcutis Biotherapeutics to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.