American Security Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ARSC Stock | USD 0.0001 0.00 0.000003% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Security Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. American Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Security stock prices and determine the direction of American Security Resources's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Security's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength indicator of American Security's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Security hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Security Resources from the perspective of American Security response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Security Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. American Security after-hype prediction price | USD 1.0E-4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Security to cross-verify your projections. American Security Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Security Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the American Security's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 54 | Current Value 51.3 | Quarterly Volatility 64.5 K |
American Security Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Security Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.0001 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Security's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Security Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Security | American Security Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Security Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Security's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Security's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0001 and 0.0001, respectively. We have considered American Security's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Security stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Security stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 61.4946 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0 |
Predictive Modules for American Security
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Security. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Security's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Security After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Security at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Security or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Security, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Security Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Security's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Security's historical news coverage. American Security's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 0.00, respectively. We have considered American Security's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Security is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Security is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Security Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as American Security is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Security backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Security, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.0001 | 0.0001 | 0.00 |
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American Security Hype Timeline
American Security is presently traded for 0.0001. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. American is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on American Security is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.00. The company last dividend was issued on the 11th of August 2016. American Security had 1:2500 split on the 11th of August 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Security to cross-verify your projections.American Security Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Security's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Security's future price movements. Getting to know how American Security's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Security may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NKWFF | Oceanic Wind Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15,350 | |
| QSPW | Quantum Solar Power | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ZHYLF | Zhaoheng Hydropower | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| VCII | ViviCells International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CGEI | CGE Energy | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 100.00 | |
| ARAO | AuraSource | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TPII | Triad Pro Innovators | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| NCEN | Nacel Energy Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| FEWP | Far East Wind | 0.00 | 1 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| CMNR | Commerce Energy Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Security
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Security's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Security's price trends.American Security Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Security stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Security could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Security by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Security Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Security stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Security shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Security stock market strength indicators, traders can identify American Security Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1.0E-4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1.0E-4 |
Story Coverage note for American Security
The number of cover stories for American Security depends on current market conditions and American Security's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Security is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Security's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Security to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Security. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Security listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of American Security is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Security's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Security's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Security's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Security's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Security's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Security is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Security's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.