Ardmore Shpng Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ASC Stock | USD 11.84 0.07 0.59% |
Ardmore Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Ardmore Shpng stock prices and determine the direction of Ardmore Shpng's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Ardmore Shpng's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The value of relative strength index of Ardmore Shpng's share price is at 52. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ardmore Shpng, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.385 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.7 | Wall Street Target Price 15.45 |
Using Ardmore Shpng hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ardmore Shpng from the perspective of Ardmore Shpng response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ardmore Shpng using Ardmore Shpng's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ardmore using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ardmore Shpng's stock price.
Ardmore Shpng Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Ardmore Shpng's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ardmore. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ardmore Shpng stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 11.0127 | Short Percent 0.0511 | Short Ratio 3.77 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.4 M | 50 Day MA 11.7584 |
Ardmore Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ardmore Shpng on the next trading day is expected to be 11.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.34.Ardmore Shpng Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Ardmore Shpng's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ardmore. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ardmore can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ardmore Shpng. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ardmore Shpng's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ardmore Shpng.
Ardmore Shpng Implied Volatility | 0.99 |
Ardmore Shpng's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ardmore Shpng stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ardmore Shpng's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ardmore Shpng stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ardmore Shpng's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ardmore Shpng on the next trading day is expected to be 11.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.34. Ardmore Shpng after-hype prediction price | USD 12.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardmore Shpng to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Ardmore contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Ardmore Shpng will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0619% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Ardmore Shpng trading at USD 11.84, that is roughly USD 0.007326 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Ardmore Shpng's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Ardmore Shpng options at the current volatility level of 0.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Ardmore Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Ardmore Shpng's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Ardmore Shpng's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Ardmore Shpng stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Ardmore Shpng's open interest, investors have to compare it to Ardmore Shpng's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Ardmore Shpng is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Ardmore. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Ardmore Shpng Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ardmore price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ardmore using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ardmore charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ardmore Shpng Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Ardmore Shpng's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 49.5 M | Current Value 47.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 23 M |
Ardmore Shpng Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Ardmore Shpng on the next trading day is expected to be 11.39 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.34.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ardmore Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ardmore Shpng's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ardmore Shpng Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ardmore Shpng | Ardmore Shpng Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Ardmore Shpng Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ardmore Shpng's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ardmore Shpng's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.37 and 13.41, respectively. We have considered Ardmore Shpng's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ardmore Shpng stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ardmore Shpng stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9576 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1531 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.013 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.338 |
Predictive Modules for Ardmore Shpng
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardmore Shpng. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ardmore Shpng's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ardmore Shpng After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ardmore Shpng at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ardmore Shpng or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ardmore Shpng, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ardmore Shpng Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ardmore Shpng's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ardmore Shpng's historical news coverage. Ardmore Shpng's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.01 and 14.05, respectively. We have considered Ardmore Shpng's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ardmore Shpng is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ardmore Shpng is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ardmore Shpng Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ardmore Shpng is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ardmore Shpng backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ardmore Shpng, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 2.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.84 | 12.03 | 0.08 |
|
Ardmore Shpng Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Ardmore Shpng is traded for 11.84. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ardmore is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.08%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.04%. The volatility of related hype on Ardmore Shpng is about 961.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.83. About 14.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.77. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ardmore Shpng last dividend was issued on the 28th of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardmore Shpng to cross-verify your projections.Ardmore Shpng Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ardmore Shpng's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ardmore Shpng's future price movements. Getting to know how Ardmore Shpng's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ardmore Shpng may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SB | Safe Bulkers | (0.07) | 8 per month | 1.03 | 0.15 | 3.34 | (1.72) | 13.45 | |
| CLCO | Cool Company | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.37 | (0.14) | 0.62 | (0.62) | 2.26 | |
| ESEA | Euroseas | (2.08) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.87 | (3.78) | 13.57 | |
| EBF | Ennis Inc | (0.04) | 6 per month | 1.08 | 0.10 | 2.20 | (1.93) | 6.77 | |
| KNOP | KNOT Offshore Partners | (0.21) | 9 per month | 1.17 | 0.09 | 3.99 | (2.14) | 12.60 | |
| SBC | SBC Communications | 0.40 | 10 per month | 3.08 | 0.02 | 6.43 | (6.65) | 16.73 | |
| HSHP | Himalaya Shipping | 0.02 | 7 per month | 2.07 | 0.11 | 3.41 | (3.69) | 12.50 | |
| PANL | Pangaea Logistic | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.21 | 5.11 | (2.91) | 22.74 | |
| SWBI | Smith Wesson Brands | (0.10) | 11 per month | 1.86 | 0.02 | 3.41 | (2.42) | 25.97 | |
| CMDB | Costamare Bulkers Holdings | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.70 | 0.08 | 2.58 | (3.29) | 15.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ardmore Shpng
For every potential investor in Ardmore, whether a beginner or expert, Ardmore Shpng's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ardmore Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ardmore. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ardmore Shpng's price trends.Ardmore Shpng Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ardmore Shpng stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ardmore Shpng could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ardmore Shpng by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ardmore Shpng Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ardmore Shpng stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ardmore Shpng shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ardmore Shpng stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ardmore Shpng entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ardmore Shpng Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ardmore Shpng's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ardmore Shpng's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ardmore stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.78 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.1 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.87 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ardmore Shpng
The number of cover stories for Ardmore Shpng depends on current market conditions and Ardmore Shpng's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ardmore Shpng is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ardmore Shpng's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Ardmore Shpng Short Properties
Ardmore Shpng's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ardmore Shpng's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ardmore Shpng often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ardmore Shpng's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ardmore Shpng's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 42 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 47 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ardmore Shpng to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Ardmore Stock refer to our How to Trade Ardmore Stock guide.You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ardmore Shpng. If investors know Ardmore will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ardmore Shpng listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Dividend Share 0.3 | Earnings Share 0.79 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.15) |
The market value of Ardmore Shpng is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ardmore that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ardmore Shpng's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ardmore Shpng's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ardmore Shpng's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ardmore Shpng's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ardmore Shpng's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ardmore Shpng is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ardmore Shpng's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.