Invesco Asia Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

ASIAX Fund  USD 29.26  0.30  1.04%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Asia Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 29.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.52. Invesco Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Invesco Asia's share price is above 70 at this time. This suggests that the mutual fund is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Invesco, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 79

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Invesco Asia's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Invesco Asia Pacific, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Invesco Asia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Invesco Asia Pacific from the perspective of Invesco Asia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Asia Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 29.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.52.

Invesco Asia after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 29.26  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Asia to cross-verify your projections.

Invesco Asia Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Invesco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Invesco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Invesco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Invesco Asia price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Invesco Asia Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Invesco Asia Pacific on the next trading day is expected to be 29.33 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.57, mean absolute percentage error of 3.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 95.52.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Invesco Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Invesco Asia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Invesco Asia Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Invesco AsiaInvesco Asia Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Invesco Asia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Invesco Asia's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Invesco Asia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 25.63 and 33.04, respectively. We have considered Invesco Asia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
29.26
29.33
Expected Value
33.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Invesco Asia mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Invesco Asia mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.2887
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5659
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.068
SAESum of the absolute errors95.522
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Invesco Asia Pacific historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Invesco Asia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Invesco Asia Pacific. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
25.5529.2632.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
25.8429.5533.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
24.9928.2031.42
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Invesco Asia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Invesco Asia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Invesco Asia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Invesco Asia Pacific.

Invesco Asia After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Invesco Asia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Invesco Asia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Invesco Asia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Invesco Asia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Invesco Asia's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Invesco Asia's historical news coverage. Invesco Asia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.55 and 32.97, respectively. We have considered Invesco Asia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
29.26
29.26
After-hype Price
32.97
Upside
Invesco Asia is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Invesco Asia Pacific is based on 3 months time horizon.

Invesco Asia Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Invesco Asia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Invesco Asia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Invesco Asia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.58 
3.71
 0.00  
  1.12 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
29.26
29.26
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Invesco Asia Hype Timeline

Invesco Asia Pacific is presently traded for 29.26. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 1.12. Invesco is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.58%. %. The volatility of related hype on Invesco Asia is about 192.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 30.38. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.47. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Invesco Asia Pacific last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Invesco Asia to cross-verify your projections.

Invesco Asia Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Invesco Asia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Invesco Asia's future price movements. Getting to know how Invesco Asia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Invesco Asia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Invesco Asia

For every potential investor in Invesco, whether a beginner or expert, Invesco Asia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Invesco Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Invesco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Invesco Asia's price trends.

Invesco Asia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Invesco Asia mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Invesco Asia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Invesco Asia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Invesco Asia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Invesco Asia mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Invesco Asia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Invesco Asia mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Invesco Asia Pacific entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Invesco Asia Risk Indicators

The analysis of Invesco Asia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Invesco Asia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting invesco mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Invesco Asia

The number of cover stories for Invesco Asia depends on current market conditions and Invesco Asia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Invesco Asia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Invesco Asia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Invesco Mutual Fund

Invesco Asia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Invesco Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Invesco with respect to the benefits of owning Invesco Asia security.
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