ASML Holding Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ASME Stock | EUR 1,240 1.60 0.13% |
ASML Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of ASML Holding's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of ASML Holding's stock price is roughly 65. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 20th of February 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling ASML, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.072 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.049 |
Using ASML Holding hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ASML Holding NV from the perspective of ASML Holding response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 1,240 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,336. ASML Holding after-hype prediction price | EUR 1252.29 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ASML |
ASML Holding Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ASML price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASML using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASML charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ASML Holding Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ASML Holding NV on the next trading day is expected to be 1,240 with a mean absolute deviation of 21.90, mean absolute percentage error of 824.34, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,336.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASML Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASML Holding's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ASML Holding Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ASML Holding | ASML Holding Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
ASML Holding Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ASML Holding's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASML Holding's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,237 and 1,243, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASML Holding stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASML Holding stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.8251 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -6.399 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 21.9046 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0206 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1336.18 |
Predictive Modules for ASML Holding
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASML Holding NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASML Holding's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASML Holding After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ASML Holding at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ASML Holding or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ASML Holding, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ASML Holding Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ASML Holding's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASML Holding's historical news coverage. ASML Holding's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,116 and 1,255, respectively. We have considered ASML Holding's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ASML Holding is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ASML Holding NV is based on 3 months time horizon.
ASML Holding Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASML Holding is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASML Holding backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASML Holding, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.67 | 2.72 | 11.91 | 0.19 | 9 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1,240 | 1,252 | 0.97 |
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ASML Holding Hype Timeline
ASML Holding NV is presently traded for 1,240on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 11.91, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. ASML is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 1252.29 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 15.3%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.97%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.67%. The volatility of related hype on ASML Holding is about 966.5%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,240. The company reported the revenue of 32.67 B. Net Income was 9.61 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 17.26 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASML Holding to cross-verify your projections.ASML Holding Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ASML Holding's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASML Holding's future price movements. Getting to know how ASML Holding's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ASML Holding may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ELG | Elmos Semiconductor SE | 2.80 | 3 per month | 1.89 | 0.20 | 4.34 | (3.89) | 9.82 | |
| VNX | NXP Semiconductors NV | (2.00) | 10 per month | 1.28 | 0.08 | 5.15 | (2.38) | 11.22 | |
| N0S | Nordic Semiconductor ASA | (0.48) | 2 per month | 2.05 | 0.04 | 4.93 | (3.55) | 11.53 | |
| 2U0 | SOGECLAIR SA INH | 0.00 | 2 per month | 1.20 | 0.12 | 3.13 | (2.32) | 9.81 | |
| TSFA | Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing | (2.00) | 7 per month | 1.59 | 0.12 | 4.14 | (2.89) | 11.15 | |
| WI20 | WIZZ AIR HLDGUNSPADR4 | (0.12) | 1 per month | 2.28 | 0.13 | 7.14 | (3.78) | 13.43 | |
| RY4C | Ryanair Holdings plc | (0.17) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.93 | (2.75) | 7.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for ASML Holding
For every potential investor in ASML, whether a beginner or expert, ASML Holding's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASML Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASML. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASML Holding's price trends.ASML Holding Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASML Holding stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASML Holding could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASML Holding by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ASML Holding Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASML Holding stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASML Holding shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASML Holding stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ASML Holding NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ASML Holding Risk Indicators
The analysis of ASML Holding's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASML Holding's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asml stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.72 | |||
| Variance | 7.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.58 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.16 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.54) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ASML Holding
The number of cover stories for ASML Holding depends on current market conditions and ASML Holding's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ASML Holding is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ASML Holding's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASML Holding to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.