ASM International Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ASMXF Stock | USD 842.39 28.60 3.51% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 878.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 802.27. ASM Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ASM International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of ASM International's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ASM International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ASM International NV from the perspective of ASM International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 878.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 802.27. ASM International after-hype prediction price | USD 842.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ASM |
ASM International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ASM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASM using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ASM International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 878.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.15, mean absolute percentage error of 297.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 802.27.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASM Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASM International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ASM International Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ASM International | ASM International Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ASM International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ASM International's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASM International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 875.32 and 881.02, respectively. We have considered ASM International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASM International pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASM International pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 123.8046 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 13.1519 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0204 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 802.2685 |
Predictive Modules for ASM International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASM International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASM International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASM International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ASM International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ASM International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of ASM International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ASM International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ASM International's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASM International's historical news coverage. ASM International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 839.52 and 845.22, respectively. We have considered ASM International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ASM International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ASM International is based on 3 months time horizon.
ASM International Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASM International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASM International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASM International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.46 | 2.85 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 17 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 17 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
842.39 | 842.37 | 0.00 |
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ASM International Hype Timeline
ASM International is presently traded for 842.39. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. ASM is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on ASM International is about 1647.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 842.47. About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.67. ASM International recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.33. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of May 2022. The firm had 3:1 split on the 18th of March 1996. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 17 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM International to cross-verify your projections.ASM International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ASM International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASM International's future price movements. Getting to know how ASM International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ASM International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DSCSY | Disco Corp ADR | 1.06 | 20 per month | 2.92 | 0.09 | 4.60 | (4.73) | 11.59 | |
| DISPF | Disco | (1.51) | 37 per month | 1.62 | 0.09 | 6.82 | (4.60) | 18.48 | |
| NTDTY | NTT Data Corp | 0.32 | 24 per month | 4.95 | 0.03 | 13.10 | (10.42) | 32.19 | |
| HXGBF | Hexagon AB | 0.03 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.67 | (3.67) | 17.18 | |
| HXGBY | Hexagon AB ADR | 1.06 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.43 | (2.44) | 11.34 | |
| STMEF | STMicroelectronics NV | 0.52 | 34 per month | 2.25 | (0.02) | 4.07 | (4.29) | 19.24 | |
| TTDKF | TDK Corporation | 0.03 | 15 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 8.19 | (10.24) | 27.41 | |
| ERIXF | Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson | (0.20) | 7 per month | 1.19 | (0.06) | 3.38 | (2.76) | 11.30 | |
| TTDKY | TDK Corp ADR | 0.04 | 40 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.40 | (3.72) | 12.28 | |
| LSRCF | Lasertec | 0.38 | 12 per month | 1.63 | 0.14 | 9.33 | (2.56) | 50.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for ASM International
For every potential investor in ASM, whether a beginner or expert, ASM International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASM Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASM International's price trends.ASM International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASM International pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASM International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASM International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ASM International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASM International pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASM International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASM International pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify ASM International NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.04 | |||
| Day Median Price | 842.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 842.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 14.3 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 28.6 |
ASM International Risk Indicators
The analysis of ASM International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASM International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asm pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.52 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.89) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ASM International
The number of cover stories for ASM International depends on current market conditions and ASM International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ASM International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ASM International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in ASM Pink Sheet
ASM International financial ratios help investors to determine whether ASM Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ASM with respect to the benefits of owning ASM International security.