ASM International Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASMXF Stock  USD 842.39  28.60  3.51%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 878.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 802.27. ASM Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ASM International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of ASM International's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of ASM International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ASM International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ASM International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ASM International NV, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using ASM International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ASM International NV from the perspective of ASM International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 878.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 802.27.

ASM International after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 842.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM International to cross-verify your projections.

ASM International Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ASM price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ASM using various technical indicators. When you analyze ASM charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for ASM International is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ASM International NV value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ASM International Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ASM International NV on the next trading day is expected to be 878.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 13.15, mean absolute percentage error of 297.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 802.27.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ASM Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ASM International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ASM International Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest ASM InternationalASM International Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ASM International Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ASM International's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ASM International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 875.32 and 881.02, respectively. We have considered ASM International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
842.39
875.32
Downside
878.17
Expected Value
881.02
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ASM International pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ASM International pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria123.8046
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation13.1519
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0204
SAESum of the absolute errors802.2685
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ASM International NV. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ASM International. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ASM International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASM International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASM International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
839.52842.37845.22
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
628.94631.79926.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
493.03659.12825.21
Details

ASM International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ASM International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ASM International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of ASM International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ASM International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ASM International's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ASM International's historical news coverage. ASM International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 839.52 and 845.22, respectively. We have considered ASM International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
842.39
839.52
Downside
842.37
After-hype Price
845.22
Upside
ASM International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ASM International is based on 3 months time horizon.

ASM International Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ASM International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ASM International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ASM International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.46 
2.85
  0.02 
  0.08 
17 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 17 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
842.39
842.37
0.00 
7,125  
Notes

ASM International Hype Timeline

ASM International is presently traded for 842.39. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.08. ASM is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.46%. %. The volatility of related hype on ASM International is about 1647.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 842.47. About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.67. ASM International recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.33. The entity last dividend was issued on the 18th of May 2022. The firm had 3:1 split on the 18th of March 1996. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 17 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ASM International to cross-verify your projections.

ASM International Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ASM International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ASM International's future price movements. Getting to know how ASM International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ASM International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DSCSYDisco Corp ADR 1.06 20 per month 2.92  0.09  4.60 (4.73) 11.59 
DISPFDisco(1.51)37 per month 1.62  0.09  6.82 (4.60) 18.48 
NTDTYNTT Data Corp 0.32 24 per month 4.95  0.03  13.10 (10.42) 32.19 
HXGBFHexagon AB 0.03 25 per month 0.00 (0.07) 2.67 (3.67) 17.18 
HXGBYHexagon AB ADR 1.06 15 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.43 (2.44) 11.34 
STMEFSTMicroelectronics NV 0.52 34 per month 2.25 (0.02) 4.07 (4.29) 19.24 
TTDKFTDK Corporation 0.03 15 per month 0.00 (0.03) 8.19 (10.24) 27.41 
ERIXFTelefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson(0.20)7 per month 1.19 (0.06) 3.38 (2.76) 11.30 
TTDKYTDK Corp ADR 0.04 40 per month 0.00 (0.12) 4.40 (3.72) 12.28 
LSRCFLasertec 0.38 12 per month 1.63  0.14  9.33 (2.56) 50.51 

Other Forecasting Options for ASM International

For every potential investor in ASM, whether a beginner or expert, ASM International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ASM Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ASM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ASM International's price trends.

ASM International Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ASM International pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ASM International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ASM International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ASM International Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ASM International pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ASM International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ASM International pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify ASM International NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ASM International Risk Indicators

The analysis of ASM International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ASM International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting asm pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for ASM International

The number of cover stories for ASM International depends on current market conditions and ASM International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ASM International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ASM International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in ASM Pink Sheet

ASM International financial ratios help investors to determine whether ASM Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ASM with respect to the benefits of owning ASM International security.