Actelis Networks Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| ASNS Stock | USD 0.48 0.02 4.35% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Actelis Networks on the next trading day is expected to be 0.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.56. Actelis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Actelis Networks' share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.98) | EPS Estimate Current Year (6.05) | EPS Estimate Next Year (2.28) | Wall Street Target Price 21 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.13) |
Using Actelis Networks hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Actelis Networks from the perspective of Actelis Networks response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Actelis Networks Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Actelis Networks' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Actelis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Actelis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Actelis Networks. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Actelis Networks on the next trading day is expected to be 0.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.56.
Actelis Networks after-hype prediction price | USD 0.37 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Actelis Networks to cross-verify your projections. Actelis Networks Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Actelis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Actelis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Actelis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Actelis Networks' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2010-12-31 | Previous Quarter 2.3 M | Current Value 1.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 934.4 K |
Actelis Networks Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Actelis Networks on the next trading day is expected to be 0.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.56.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Actelis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Actelis Networks' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Actelis Networks Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Actelis Networks | Actelis Networks Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Actelis Networks Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Actelis Networks' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Actelis Networks' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 11.04, respectively. We have considered Actelis Networks' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Actelis Networks stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Actelis Networks stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0776 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2715 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1871 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.5594 |
Predictive Modules for Actelis Networks
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Actelis Networks. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Actelis Networks After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Actelis Networks at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Actelis Networks or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Actelis Networks, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Actelis Networks Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Actelis Networks' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Actelis Networks' historical news coverage. Actelis Networks' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.02 and 10.94, respectively. We have considered Actelis Networks' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Actelis Networks is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Actelis Networks is based on 3 months time horizon.
Actelis Networks Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Actelis Networks is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Actelis Networks backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Actelis Networks, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
3.29 | 10.57 | 7.57 | 1.17 | 18 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 18 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.48 | 0.37 | 23.31 |
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Actelis Networks Hype Timeline
Actelis Networks is presently traded for 0.48. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -7.57, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.17. Actelis is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 0.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -23.31%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -3.29%. The volatility of related hype on Actelis Networks is about 2969.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of -0.69. About 15.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.29. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Actelis Networks recorded a loss per share of 8.4. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:10 split on the 18th of November 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next estimated press release will be in about 18 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Actelis Networks to cross-verify your projections.Actelis Networks Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Actelis Networks' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Actelis Networks' future price movements. Getting to know how Actelis Networks' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Actelis Networks may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SOBR | Sobr Safe | (1.79) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.18 | (15.31) | 103.43 | |
| BOXL | Boxlight Corp Class | 0.22 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 7.82 | (15.48) | 53.84 | |
| MYSZ | My Size | 0.06 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 11.39 | (8.25) | 26.97 | |
| APCX | Apptech Corp | (1.01) | 25 per month | 7.68 | 0.18 | 21.62 | (10.81) | 95.15 | |
| OBLG | Oblong Inc | (0.06) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 10.66 | (11.03) | 37.07 | |
| RIME | Algorhythm Holdings | (0.01) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.66 | (15.79) | 54.66 | |
| COE | 51Talk Online Education | (1.79) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 4.84 | (10.63) | 23.58 | |
| ATCH | AtlasClear Holdings | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 7.69 | (8.57) | 23.50 | |
| ULY | Urgently Common Stock | 0.11 | 7 per month | 5.72 | (0.01) | 15.23 | (10.00) | 67.64 | |
| OUST | Ouster Common Stock | 0.71 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 8.35 | (8.81) | 25.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Actelis Networks
For every potential investor in Actelis, whether a beginner or expert, Actelis Networks' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Actelis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Actelis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Actelis Networks' price trends.Actelis Networks Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Actelis Networks stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Actelis Networks could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Actelis Networks by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Actelis Networks Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Actelis Networks stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Actelis Networks shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Actelis Networks stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Actelis Networks entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Actelis Networks Risk Indicators
The analysis of Actelis Networks' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Actelis Networks' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting actelis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 10.65 | |||
| Variance | 113.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Actelis Networks
The number of cover stories for Actelis Networks depends on current market conditions and Actelis Networks' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Actelis Networks is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Actelis Networks' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Actelis Networks Short Properties
Actelis Networks' future price predictability will typically decrease when Actelis Networks' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Actelis Networks often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Actelis Networks' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Actelis Networks' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 514.6 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 M |
Additional Tools for Actelis Stock Analysis
When running Actelis Networks' price analysis, check to measure Actelis Networks' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Actelis Networks is operating at the current time. Most of Actelis Networks' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Actelis Networks' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Actelis Networks' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Actelis Networks to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.