Asseco Poland Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

ASOZY Stock  USD 21.10  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Asseco Poland SA on the next trading day is expected to be 21.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0. Asseco Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Asseco Poland is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Asseco Poland SA value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Asseco Poland Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Asseco Poland SA on the next trading day is expected to be 21.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Asseco Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Asseco Poland's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Asseco Poland Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Asseco Poland Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Asseco Poland's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Asseco Poland's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.10 and 21.10, respectively. We have considered Asseco Poland's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
21.10
21.10
Expected Value
21.10
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Asseco Poland pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Asseco Poland pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria53.4834
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors0.0
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Asseco Poland SA. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Asseco Poland. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Asseco Poland

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Asseco Poland SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
21.1021.1021.10
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
21.1021.1021.10
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
21.1021.1021.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Asseco Poland. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Asseco Poland's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Asseco Poland's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Asseco Poland SA.

Other Forecasting Options for Asseco Poland

For every potential investor in Asseco, whether a beginner or expert, Asseco Poland's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Asseco Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Asseco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Asseco Poland's price trends.

Asseco Poland Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Asseco Poland pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Asseco Poland could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Asseco Poland by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Asseco Poland SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Asseco Poland's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Asseco Poland's current price.

Asseco Poland Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Asseco Poland pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Asseco Poland shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Asseco Poland pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Asseco Poland SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Asseco Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Asseco Poland's price analysis, check to measure Asseco Poland's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Asseco Poland is operating at the current time. Most of Asseco Poland's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Asseco Poland's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Asseco Poland's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Asseco Poland to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.