Astec Industries Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ASTE Stock  USD 47.65  0.76  1.57%   
Astec Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Astec Industries stock prices and determine the direction of Astec Industries's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Astec Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Astec Industries' share price is at 51. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Astec Industries, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 51

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Astec Industries' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Astec Industries and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Astec Industries' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Astec Industries, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Astec Industries' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.151
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.83
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.07
EPS Estimate Next Year
3.25
Wall Street Target Price
56.5
Using Astec Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Astec Industries from the perspective of Astec Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Astec Industries using Astec Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Astec using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Astec Industries' stock price.

Astec Industries Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Astec Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Astec. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Astec Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA
43.3095
Short Percent
0.0359
Short Ratio
3.42
Shares Short Prior Month
761.7 K
50 Day MA
45.6928

Astec Relative Strength Index

The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astec Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 47.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.20.

Astec Industries Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Astec Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Astec. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Astec can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Astec Industries. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Astec Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Astec Industries.

Astec Industries Implied Volatility

    
  0.93  
Astec Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Astec Industries stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Astec Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Astec Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when Astec Industries' options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astec Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 47.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.20.

Astec Industries after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 47.65  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astec Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Astec Stock refer to our How to Trade Astec Stock guide.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Astec contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Astec Industries will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0581% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Astec Industries trading at USD 47.65, that is roughly USD 0.0277 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Astec Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Astec Industries options at the current volatility level of 0.93%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.

Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Astec Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Astec Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Astec Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Astec Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Astec Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to Astec Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Astec Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Astec. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.

Astec Industries Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Astec price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Astec using various technical indicators. When you analyze Astec charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Astec Industries works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

Astec Industries Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astec Industries on the next trading day is expected to be 47.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 0.86, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.20.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astec Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astec Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Astec Industries Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Astec Industries  Astec Industries Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Astec Industries Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Astec Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astec Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.62 and 49.67, respectively. We have considered Astec Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
47.65
47.65
Expected Value
49.67
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astec Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astec Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1256
MADMean absolute deviation0.7201
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0158
SAESum of the absolute errors43.2037
When Astec Industries prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Astec Industries trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Astec Industries observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Astec Industries

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astec Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astec Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
45.6447.6549.66
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
44.4846.4948.50
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
43.6347.2450.85
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
51.4256.5062.72
Details

Astec Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Astec Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Astec Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Astec Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Astec Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Astec Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Astec Industries' historical news coverage. Astec Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.64 and 49.66, respectively. We have considered Astec Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
47.65
47.65
After-hype Price
49.66
Upside
Astec Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Astec Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.

Astec Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Astec Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Astec Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Astec Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06 
2.03
  0.04 
  0.01 
24 Events / Month
8 Events / Month
In about 24 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.65
47.65
0.00 
317.19  
Notes

Astec Industries Hype Timeline

Astec Industries is presently traded for 47.65. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Astec is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.06%. %. The volatility of related hype on Astec Industries is about 1897.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.64. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.66. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Astec Industries has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.6. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of November 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 19th of January 1999. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 24 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astec Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Astec Stock refer to our How to Trade Astec Stock guide.

Astec Industries Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Astec Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Astec Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how Astec Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Astec Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LNNLindsay 2.51 3 per month 1.65  0.01  2.78 (2.98) 8.40 
BLDPBallard Power Systems(0.05)1 per month 0.00 (0.13) 4.87 (5.63) 15.31 
GICGlobal Industrial Co 0.54 30 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.63 (1.85) 18.84 
LMBLimbach Holdings 4.89 12 per month 0.00 (0.08) 5.02 (5.25) 14.83 
BBSIBarrett Business Services(3.76)18 per month 0.00 (0.10) 2.11 (2.57) 15.33 
THRThermon Group Holdings(3.76)7 per month 1.22  0.27  3.70 (2.28) 15.73 
PLPCPreformed Line Products 1.26 5 per month 3.00  0.02  4.06 (5.33) 11.80 
GRCGorman Rupp(1.15)10 per month 1.53  0.03  3.41 (2.44) 7.79 
ECOOkeanis Eco Tankers 0.09 22 per month 2.06  0.11  4.38 (3.36) 15.37 
RDWRedwire Corp(1.64)15 per month 5.86  0.13  13.96 (8.57) 31.28 

Other Forecasting Options for Astec Industries

For every potential investor in Astec, whether a beginner or expert, Astec Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astec Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astec. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astec Industries' price trends.

Astec Industries Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astec Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astec Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astec Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Astec Industries Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astec Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astec Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astec Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astec Industries entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Astec Industries Risk Indicators

The analysis of Astec Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astec Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astec stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Astec Industries

The number of cover stories for Astec Industries depends on current market conditions and Astec Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Astec Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Astec Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Astec Industries Short Properties

Astec Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when Astec Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Astec Industries often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Astec Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astec Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding22.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments91.3 M
When determining whether Astec Industries is a strong investment it is important to analyze Astec Industries' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Astec Industries' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Astec Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astec Industries to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade Astec Stock refer to our How to Trade Astec Stock guide.
You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
Will Construction Machinery & Heavy Transportation Equipment sector continue expanding? Could Astec diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astec Industries. If investors know Astec will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Astec Industries data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
3.151
Dividend Share
0.52
Earnings Share
2.09
Revenue Per Share
59.889
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.201
The market value of Astec Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astec that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astec Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astec Industries' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Astec Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astec Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Astec Industries' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Astec Industries represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Astec Industries' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.