Ascent Solar Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| ASTI Stock | USD 6.22 1.23 24.65% |
Ascent Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Ascent Solar's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 2nd of February 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Ascent Solar's share price is at 58. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ascent Solar, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Wall Street Target Price 3 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.339 |
Using Ascent Solar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ascent Solar Technologies from the perspective of Ascent Solar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Ascent Solar Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 6.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.21. Ascent Solar after-hype prediction price | USD 7.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascent Solar to cross-verify your projections. Ascent Solar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Ascent price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ascent using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ascent charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Ascent Solar Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 3rd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Ascent Solar Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 6.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.51, mean absolute percentage error of 0.39, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.21.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Ascent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Ascent Solar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Ascent Solar Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Ascent Solar | Ascent Solar Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Ascent Solar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Ascent Solar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Ascent Solar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.06 and 20.40, respectively. We have considered Ascent Solar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Ascent Solar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Ascent Solar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1629 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5117 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1892 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.2114 |
Predictive Modules for Ascent Solar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ascent Solar Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ascent Solar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ascent Solar After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Ascent Solar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ascent Solar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ascent Solar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Ascent Solar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Ascent Solar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ascent Solar's historical news coverage. Ascent Solar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.36 and 21.34, respectively. We have considered Ascent Solar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Ascent Solar is dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ascent Solar Technologies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Ascent Solar Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ascent Solar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ascent Solar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ascent Solar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
2.53 | 14.16 | 1.06 | 0.05 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.22 | 7.18 | 17.32 |
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Ascent Solar Hype Timeline
Ascent Solar Technologies is presently traded for 6.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Ascent is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.18 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 17.32%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 2.53%. The volatility of related hype on Ascent Solar is about 69208.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.17. Ascent Solar Technologies currently holds 2.06 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 3.02, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Ascent Solar Technologies has a current ratio of 0.71, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Ascent Solar's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity.Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascent Solar to cross-verify your projections.Ascent Solar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Ascent Solar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ascent Solar's future price movements. Getting to know how Ascent Solar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ascent Solar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TURB | Turbo Energy SA | (0.12) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.30) | 7.77 | (12.45) | 28.93 | |
| PTLE | PTL LTD Ordinary | (0.03) | 29 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 18.18 | (13.64) | 62.75 | |
| RBNE | Robin Energy | (0.28) | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 9.86 | (12.27) | 23.90 | |
| VIVK | Vivakor | (0) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 16.03 | (21.98) | 112.20 | |
| TPET | Trio Petroleum Corp | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 7.32 | (7.78) | 32.43 | |
| STAK | STAK Ordinary Shares | 0.00 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 10.00 | (9.30) | 30.59 | |
| NUAI | New Era Energy | 0.23 | 10 per month | 10.26 | 0.07 | 19.87 | (13.15) | 56.80 | |
| SKYQ | Sky Quarry | (0.05) | 8 per month | 8.80 | 0.02 | 17.65 | (14.71) | 125.89 | |
| PN | Skycorp Solar Group | 0.10 | 7 per month | 6.62 | (0) | 8.93 | (7.89) | 39.11 | |
| BRN | Barnwell Industries | (0.04) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.38 | (5.22) | 19.84 |
Other Forecasting Options for Ascent Solar
For every potential investor in Ascent, whether a beginner or expert, Ascent Solar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Ascent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Ascent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Ascent Solar's price trends.Ascent Solar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Ascent Solar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Ascent Solar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Ascent Solar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Ascent Solar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Ascent Solar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Ascent Solar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Ascent Solar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Ascent Solar Technologies entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Ascent Solar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Ascent Solar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Ascent Solar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting ascent stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 9.3 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 9.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 13.76 | |||
| Variance | 189.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 108.91 | |||
| Semi Variance | 83.56 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (11.25) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Ascent Solar
The number of cover stories for Ascent Solar depends on current market conditions and Ascent Solar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ascent Solar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ascent Solar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Ascent Solar Short Properties
Ascent Solar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ascent Solar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ascent Solar Technologies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ascent Solar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ascent Solar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 882.5 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.2 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Ascent Solar to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.
Is there potential for Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment market expansion? Will Ascent introduce new products? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ascent Solar. If investors know Ascent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Understanding fair value requires weighing current performance against future potential. All the valuation information about Ascent Solar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Earnings Share (2.49) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 2.339 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Ascent Solar Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ascent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ascent Solar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ascent Solar's true underlying value. Analysts utilize numerous techniques to assess fundamental value, seeking to purchase shares when trading prices fall beneath estimated intrinsic worth. Because Ascent Solar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ascent Solar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Ascent Solar's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Ascent Solar represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, Ascent Solar's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.