Atlas Copco Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

ATCO-A Stock  SEK 173.40  0.75  0.43%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atlas Copco AB on the next trading day is expected to be 173.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.07. Atlas Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Atlas Copco stock prices and determine the direction of Atlas Copco AB's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Atlas Copco's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Atlas Copco - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Atlas Copco prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Atlas Copco price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Atlas Copco AB.

Atlas Copco Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atlas Copco AB on the next trading day is expected to be 173.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.15, mean absolute percentage error of 8.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 127.07.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atlas Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atlas Copco's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Atlas Copco Stock Forecast Pattern

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Atlas Copco Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Atlas Copco's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atlas Copco's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 171.68 and 174.61, respectively. We have considered Atlas Copco's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
173.40
171.68
Downside
173.14
Expected Value
174.61
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atlas Copco stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atlas Copco stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.238
MADMean absolute deviation2.1537
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0118
SAESum of the absolute errors127.0681
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Atlas Copco observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Atlas Copco AB observations.

Predictive Modules for Atlas Copco

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atlas Copco AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
171.94173.40174.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
156.06178.66180.12
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Atlas Copco

For every potential investor in Atlas, whether a beginner or expert, Atlas Copco's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atlas Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atlas. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atlas Copco's price trends.

Atlas Copco Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atlas Copco stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atlas Copco could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atlas Copco by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Atlas Copco AB Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Atlas Copco's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Atlas Copco's current price.

Atlas Copco Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atlas Copco stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atlas Copco shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atlas Copco stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atlas Copco AB entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Atlas Copco Risk Indicators

The analysis of Atlas Copco's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atlas Copco's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting atlas stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Thematic Opportunities

Explore Investment Opportunities

Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Other Information on Investing in Atlas Stock

Atlas Copco financial ratios help investors to determine whether Atlas Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Atlas with respect to the benefits of owning Atlas Copco security.