AlphaTime Acquisition Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

ATMC Stock   15.60  0.00  0.00%   
AlphaTime Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AlphaTime Acquisition stock prices and determine the direction of AlphaTime Acquisition Corp's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AlphaTime Acquisition's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of AlphaTime Acquisition's share price is above 70 at the present time. This suggests that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling AlphaTime, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 77

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of AlphaTime Acquisition's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with AlphaTime Acquisition Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting AlphaTime Acquisition's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.19)
Using AlphaTime Acquisition hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AlphaTime Acquisition Corp from the perspective of AlphaTime Acquisition response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AlphaTime Acquisition Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.01.

AlphaTime Acquisition after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 15.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AlphaTime Acquisition to cross-verify your projections.

AlphaTime Acquisition Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AlphaTime price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AlphaTime using various technical indicators. When you analyze AlphaTime charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for AlphaTime Acquisition works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

AlphaTime Acquisition Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AlphaTime Acquisition Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 15.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AlphaTime Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AlphaTime Acquisition's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AlphaTime Acquisition Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest AlphaTime Acquisition  AlphaTime Acquisition Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

AlphaTime Acquisition Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AlphaTime Acquisition's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AlphaTime Acquisition's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.38 and 18.82, respectively. We have considered AlphaTime Acquisition's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.60
15.60
Expected Value
18.82
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AlphaTime Acquisition stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AlphaTime Acquisition stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0534
MADMean absolute deviation0.1019
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0075
SAESum of the absolute errors6.01
When AlphaTime Acquisition Corp prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any AlphaTime Acquisition Corp trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent AlphaTime Acquisition observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for AlphaTime Acquisition

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AlphaTime Acquisition. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.1915.4118.63
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.0017.2220.44
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.6015.6015.60
Details

AlphaTime Acquisition After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AlphaTime Acquisition at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AlphaTime Acquisition or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AlphaTime Acquisition, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AlphaTime Acquisition Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AlphaTime Acquisition's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AlphaTime Acquisition's historical news coverage. AlphaTime Acquisition's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.19 and 18.63, respectively. We have considered AlphaTime Acquisition's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
15.60
15.41
After-hype Price
18.63
Upside
AlphaTime Acquisition is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AlphaTime Acquisition is based on 3 months time horizon.

AlphaTime Acquisition Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AlphaTime Acquisition is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AlphaTime Acquisition backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AlphaTime Acquisition, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.44 
3.22
 0.00  
  0.12 
6 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
15.60
15.41
1.22 
0.00  
Notes

AlphaTime Acquisition Hype Timeline

AlphaTime Acquisition is presently traded for 15.60. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.12. AlphaTime is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 15.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.22%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.44%. The volatility of related hype on AlphaTime Acquisition is about 1154.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.72. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 6 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AlphaTime Acquisition to cross-verify your projections.

AlphaTime Acquisition Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AlphaTime Acquisition's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AlphaTime Acquisition's future price movements. Getting to know how AlphaTime Acquisition's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AlphaTime Acquisition may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
QETAQuetta Acquisition(0.04)10 per month 0.73 (0.04) 1.65 (1.14) 7.10 
WINVWinVest Acquisition Corp 0.00 6 per month 0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00 
ESHAESH Acquisition Corp 0.00 10 per month 3.92  0.04  7.48 (5.13) 53.87 
WTMAWelsbach Technology Metals 2.90 1 per month 7.16  0.1  18.25 (16.04) 77.39 
HSPOHorizon Space Acquisition 0.18 7 per month 3.46  0.01  2.46 (3.24) 61.25 
BKHABlack Hawk Acquisition 0.00 7 per month 0.54 (0.04) 1.23 (1.13) 6.07 
FORLFour Leaf Acquisition 0.00 5 per month 0.00 (0.16) 0.00  0.00  2.17 
DMYYdMY Squared Technology(0.25)7 per month 0.00 (0.08) 2.54 (3.40) 9.77 
OAKUOak Woods Acquisition 0.00 10 per month 0.62 (0.05) 1.24 (0.83) 6.66 
TDACTranslational Development Acquisition 0.00 7 per month 0.00 (0.51) 0.29 (0.19) 0.86 

Other Forecasting Options for AlphaTime Acquisition

For every potential investor in AlphaTime, whether a beginner or expert, AlphaTime Acquisition's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AlphaTime Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AlphaTime. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AlphaTime Acquisition's price trends.

AlphaTime Acquisition Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AlphaTime Acquisition stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AlphaTime Acquisition could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AlphaTime Acquisition by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AlphaTime Acquisition Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AlphaTime Acquisition stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AlphaTime Acquisition shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AlphaTime Acquisition stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AlphaTime Acquisition Corp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

AlphaTime Acquisition Risk Indicators

The analysis of AlphaTime Acquisition's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AlphaTime Acquisition's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alphatime stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for AlphaTime Acquisition

The number of cover stories for AlphaTime Acquisition depends on current market conditions and AlphaTime Acquisition's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AlphaTime Acquisition is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AlphaTime Acquisition's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AlphaTime Acquisition Short Properties

AlphaTime Acquisition's future price predictability will typically decrease when AlphaTime Acquisition's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AlphaTime Acquisition Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AlphaTime Acquisition's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AlphaTime Acquisition's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding6.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1425.00
When determining whether AlphaTime Acquisition is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if AlphaTime Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Alphatime Acquisition Corp Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Alphatime Acquisition Corp Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AlphaTime Acquisition to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Will Asset Management & Custody Banks sector continue expanding? Could AlphaTime diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AlphaTime Acquisition. If investors know AlphaTime will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AlphaTime Acquisition data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.19)
Earnings Share
0.08
Return On Equity
0.0203
AlphaTime Acquisition's market price often diverges from its book value, the accounting figure shown on AlphaTime's balance sheet. Smart investors calculate AlphaTime Acquisition's intrinsic value—its true economic worth—which may differ significantly from both market price and book value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Since AlphaTime Acquisition's trading price responds to investor sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and market psychology, it can swing far from fundamental value.
Understanding that AlphaTime Acquisition's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AlphaTime Acquisition represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. However, AlphaTime Acquisition's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.