AptarGroup Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ATR Stock | USD 126.35 0.35 0.28% |
AptarGroup Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although AptarGroup's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AptarGroup's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AptarGroup fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of AptarGroup's share price is at 55. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AptarGroup, making its price go up or down. Momentum 55
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.297 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.4433 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.7063 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.5988 | Wall Street Target Price 159.1429 |
Using AptarGroup hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AptarGroup from the perspective of AptarGroup response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AptarGroup using AptarGroup's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AptarGroup using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AptarGroup's stock price.
AptarGroup Short Interest
An investor who is long AptarGroup may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AptarGroup and may potentially protect profits, hedge AptarGroup with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 138.2961 | Short Percent 0.0209 | Short Ratio 2.33 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.3 M | 50 Day MA 121.9568 |
AptarGroup Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AptarGroup on the next trading day is expected to be 126.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.36.AptarGroup Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AptarGroup's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AptarGroup. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AptarGroup can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AptarGroup. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AptarGroup's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AptarGroup.
AptarGroup Implied Volatility | 0.41 |
AptarGroup's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AptarGroup stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AptarGroup's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AptarGroup stock will not fluctuate a lot when AptarGroup's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AptarGroup on the next trading day is expected to be 126.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.36. AptarGroup after-hype prediction price | USD 126.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AptarGroup | Build AI portfolio with AptarGroup Stock |
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AptarGroup contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AptarGroup will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0256% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With AptarGroup trading at USD 126.35, that is roughly USD 0.0324 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AptarGroup's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AptarGroup options at the current volatility level of 0.41%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 AptarGroup Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AptarGroup's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AptarGroup's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AptarGroup stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AptarGroup's open interest, investors have to compare it to AptarGroup's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AptarGroup is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AptarGroup. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AptarGroup Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AptarGroup price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AptarGroup using various technical indicators. When you analyze AptarGroup charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AptarGroup Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AptarGroup on the next trading day is expected to be 126.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 3.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73.36.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AptarGroup Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AptarGroup's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AptarGroup Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AptarGroup | AptarGroup Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AptarGroup Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AptarGroup's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AptarGroup's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 124.87 and 127.83, respectively. We have considered AptarGroup's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AptarGroup stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AptarGroup stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4464 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.034 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2227 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0102 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 73.36 |
Predictive Modules for AptarGroup
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AptarGroup. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AptarGroup's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AptarGroup After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AptarGroup at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AptarGroup or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AptarGroup, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AptarGroup Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AptarGroup's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AptarGroup's historical news coverage. AptarGroup's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 124.79 and 127.75, respectively. We have considered AptarGroup's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AptarGroup is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AptarGroup is based on 3 months time horizon.
AptarGroup Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AptarGroup is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AptarGroup backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AptarGroup, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.04 | 1.48 | 0.08 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
126.35 | 126.27 | 0.06 |
|
AptarGroup Hype Timeline
On the 27th of January AptarGroup is traded for 126.35. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. AptarGroup is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 126.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 72.91%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.04%. The volatility of related hype on AptarGroup is about 506.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 126.36. About 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of AptarGroup was presently reported as 42.22. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.22. AptarGroup last dividend was issued on the 4th of February 2026. The entity had 2:1 split on the 10th of May 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AptarGroup to cross-verify your projections.AptarGroup Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AptarGroup's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AptarGroup's future price movements. Getting to know how AptarGroup's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AptarGroup may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MASI | Masimo | 1.76 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 3.06 | (2.71) | 10.00 | |
| STVN | Stevanato Group SpA | 0.19 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.24) | 4.69 | (4.32) | 16.51 | |
| HSIC | Henry Schein | 0.18 | 10 per month | 1.11 | 0.12 | 2.43 | (1.97) | 13.60 | |
| AVTR | Avantor | 0.37 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 3.75 | (3.59) | 25.19 | |
| HALO | Halozyme Therapeutics | 0.56 | 24 per month | 1.70 | (0) | 3.12 | (2.83) | 9.83 | |
| GRFS | Grifols SA ADR | (0.24) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.17 | (3.19) | 8.69 | |
| MOH | Molina Healthcare | (1.23) | 10 per month | 4.19 | 0 | 3.97 | (4.52) | 17.49 | |
| TFX | Teleflex Incorporated | 2.75 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.48 | (3.77) | 22.60 | |
| GMED | Globus Medical | (5.48) | 11 per month | 0.82 | 0.13 | 3.67 | (2.31) | 38.89 | |
| RGEN | Repligen | 4.06 | 14 per month | 2.11 | 0 | 4.07 | (3.16) | 10.86 |
Other Forecasting Options for AptarGroup
For every potential investor in AptarGroup, whether a beginner or expert, AptarGroup's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AptarGroup Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AptarGroup. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AptarGroup's price trends.AptarGroup Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AptarGroup stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AptarGroup could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AptarGroup by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AptarGroup Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AptarGroup stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AptarGroup shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AptarGroup stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AptarGroup entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AptarGroup Risk Indicators
The analysis of AptarGroup's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AptarGroup's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aptargroup stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.48 | |||
| Variance | 2.2 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AptarGroup
The number of cover stories for AptarGroup depends on current market conditions and AptarGroup's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AptarGroup is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AptarGroup's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
AptarGroup Short Properties
AptarGroup's future price predictability will typically decrease when AptarGroup's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AptarGroup often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AptarGroup's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AptarGroup's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 67.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 226.2 M |
Additional Tools for AptarGroup Stock Analysis
When running AptarGroup's price analysis, check to measure AptarGroup's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AptarGroup is operating at the current time. Most of AptarGroup's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AptarGroup's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AptarGroup's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AptarGroup to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.