Atara Biotherapeutics Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ATRA Stock | USD 11.47 0.86 8.11% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atara Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 11.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.50. Atara Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Atara Biotherapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Atara Biotherapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Atara Biotherapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Atara |
Atara Biotherapeutics Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Atara Biotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 11.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.53, mean absolute percentage error of 0.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.50.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Atara Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Atara Biotherapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Atara Biotherapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
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Atara Biotherapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Atara Biotherapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Atara Biotherapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.55 and 19.52, respectively. We have considered Atara Biotherapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Atara Biotherapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Atara Biotherapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1427 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5338 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0542 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.4971 |
Predictive Modules for Atara Biotherapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Atara Biotherapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Atara Biotherapeutics
For every potential investor in Atara, whether a beginner or expert, Atara Biotherapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Atara Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Atara. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Atara Biotherapeutics' price trends.Atara Biotherapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Atara Biotherapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Atara Biotherapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Atara Biotherapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Atara Biotherapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Atara Biotherapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Atara Biotherapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Atara Biotherapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Atara Biotherapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Atara Biotherapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Atara Biotherapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Atara Biotherapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Atara Biotherapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Atara Biotherapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Atara Biotherapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting atara stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.83 | |||
| Variance | 61.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 28.56 | |||
| Semi Variance | 22.73 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Atara Biotherapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Atara Biotherapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Atara Biotherapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Atara Biotherapeutics Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Atara Biotherapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Atara Stock refer to our How to Trade Atara Stock guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Atara Biotherapeutics. If investors know Atara will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Atara Biotherapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (25.32) | Revenue Per Share 12.263 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 28.927 | Return On Assets (0.57) | Return On Equity (20.15) |
The market value of Atara Biotherapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Atara that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Atara Biotherapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Atara Biotherapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Atara Biotherapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Atara Biotherapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Atara Biotherapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Atara Biotherapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Atara Biotherapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.