Aurania Resources OTC Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AUIAF Stock | USD 0.15 0.01 6.25% |
Aurania OTC Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Aurania Resources' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 28th of February 2026, the value of RSI of Aurania Resources' share price is approaching 47. This suggests that the otc stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aurania Resources, making its price go up or down. Momentum 47
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
It is a matter of debate whether otc price prediction based on information in financial news can generate signals. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aurania Resources based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. Using Aurania Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aurania Resources from the perspective of Aurania Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurania Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.58. Aurania Resources after-hype prediction price | USD 0.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as otc price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aurania |
Aurania Resources Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aurania price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurania using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurania charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurania Resources Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aurania Resources on the next trading day is expected to be 0.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.58.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurania OTC Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurania Resources' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aurania Resources OTC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aurania Resources | Aurania Resources Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Aurania Resources Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aurania Resources' OTC Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aurania Resources' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0 and 11.15, respectively. We have considered Aurania Resources' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurania Resources otc stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurania Resources otc stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.6069 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -9.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0096 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0727 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.5756 |
Predictive Modules for Aurania Resources
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aurania Resources. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aurania Resources After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aurania Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aurania Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of OTC Stock prices, such as prices of Aurania Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aurania Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aurania Resources' otc stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aurania Resources' historical news coverage. Aurania Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.01 and 11.30, respectively. We have considered Aurania Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aurania Resources is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aurania Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aurania Resources OTC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a OTC Stock such as Aurania Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurania Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the OTC price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurania Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.24 | 11.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
0.15 | 0.16 | 0.00 |
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Aurania Resources Hype Timeline
Aurania Resources is presently traded for 0.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.12. Aurania is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 1.24%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aurania Resources is about 11323.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.27. About 36.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.33. Aurania Resources had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1369:1358 split on the 1st of February 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurania Resources to cross-verify your projections.Aurania Resources Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aurania Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aurania Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how Aurania Resources' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aurania Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LWAY | Lifeway Foods | 0.68 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.71 | (2.49) | 10.45 | |
| FKWL | Franklin Wireless Corp | 0.06 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.56 | (3.75) | 9.54 | |
| NRSDY | Nordic Semiconductor ASA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.40 | (4.93) | 29.41 | |
| WDKA | Panache Beverage | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SFD | Smithfield Foods Common | (0.18) | 10 per month | 0.93 | 0.11 | 2.15 | (1.60) | 6.87 | |
| HHUSF | Hua Hong Semiconductor | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.02 | 4.17 | 0.00 | 23.16 | |
| MX | MagnaChip Semiconductor | 0.12 | 8 per month | 2.67 | 0.07 | 6.34 | (4.78) | 20.02 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aurania Resources
For every potential investor in Aurania, whether a beginner or expert, Aurania Resources' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aurania OTC Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aurania. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aurania Resources' price trends.Aurania Resources Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aurania Resources otc stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aurania Resources could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aurania Resources by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurania Resources Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aurania Resources otc stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aurania Resources shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aurania Resources otc stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aurania Resources entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.94 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.15 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.15 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.01) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.5 |
Aurania Resources Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aurania Resources' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aurania Resources' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aurania otc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 7.92 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 6.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 11.01 | |||
| Variance | 121.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 121.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 47.79 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (15.85) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aurania Resources
The number of cover stories for Aurania Resources depends on current market conditions and Aurania Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aurania Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aurania Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Aurania OTC Stock
Aurania Resources financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aurania OTC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aurania with respect to the benefits of owning Aurania Resources security.