ES Australia Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AUIS Stock   954.80  9.40  0.99%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of ES Australia Israel on the next trading day is expected to be 904.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 27.65 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,686. AUIS Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ES Australia stock prices and determine the direction of ES Australia Israel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of ES Australia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for ES Australia is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of ES Australia Israel value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

ES Australia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of ES Australia Israel on the next trading day is expected to be 904.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 27.65, mean absolute percentage error of 1,091, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,686.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AUIS Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ES Australia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ES Australia Stock Forecast Pattern

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ES Australia Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ES Australia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ES Australia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 901.81 and 907.87, respectively. We have considered ES Australia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
954.80
901.81
Downside
904.84
Expected Value
907.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ES Australia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ES Australia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria125.1056
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation27.6471
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0288
SAESum of the absolute errors1686.4707
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of ES Australia Israel. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict ES Australia. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for ES Australia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ES Australia Israel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
951.77954.80957.83
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
806.88809.911,050
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
857.27924.77992.28
Details

Other Forecasting Options for ES Australia

For every potential investor in AUIS, whether a beginner or expert, ES Australia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AUIS Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AUIS. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ES Australia's price trends.

ES Australia Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ES Australia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ES Australia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ES Australia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ES Australia Israel Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ES Australia's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ES Australia's current price.

ES Australia Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ES Australia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ES Australia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ES Australia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ES Australia Israel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

ES Australia Risk Indicators

The analysis of ES Australia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ES Australia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting auis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in AUIS Stock

ES Australia financial ratios help investors to determine whether AUIS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AUIS with respect to the benefits of owning ES Australia security.