Autris Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

AUTR Stock  USD 0.68  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autris on the next trading day is expected to be 0.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56. Autris Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, the relative strength index (RSI) of Autris' share price is approaching 49. This suggests that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Autris, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 49

 Impartial

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Autris' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Autris and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Autris' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Autris, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Autris hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Autris from the perspective of Autris response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autris on the next trading day is expected to be 0.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56.

Autris after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 0.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Autris to cross-verify your projections.

Autris Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Autris price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Autris using various technical indicators. When you analyze Autris charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Autris simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Autris are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Autris prices get older.

Autris Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Autris on the next trading day is expected to be 0.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0.01, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.56.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Autris Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Autris' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Autris Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest AutrisAutris Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Autris Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Autris' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Autris' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 15.92, respectively. We have considered Autris' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
0.68
0.68
Expected Value
15.92
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Autris pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Autris pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.0049
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 6.0E-4
MADMean absolute deviation0.0259
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0558
SAESum of the absolute errors1.5556
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Autris forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Autris observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Autris

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Autris. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Autris' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.030.6815.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.020.5015.74
Details

Autris After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Autris at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Autris or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Autris, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Autris Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Autris' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Autris' historical news coverage. Autris' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 15.92, respectively. We have considered Autris' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
0.68
0.68
After-hype Price
15.92
Upside
Autris is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Autris is based on 3 months time horizon.

Autris Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Autris is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Autris backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Autris, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.98 
15.24
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
In 5 to 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
0.68
0.68
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Autris Hype Timeline

Autris is presently traded for 0.68. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Autris is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.98%. %. The volatility of related hype on Autris is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.68. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.01. Autris had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 to 10 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Autris to cross-verify your projections.

Autris Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Autris' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Autris' future price movements. Getting to know how Autris' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Autris may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Autris

For every potential investor in Autris, whether a beginner or expert, Autris' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Autris Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Autris. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Autris' price trends.

Autris Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Autris pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Autris could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Autris by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Autris Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Autris pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Autris shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Autris pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Autris entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Autris Risk Indicators

The analysis of Autris' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Autris' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting autris pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Autris

The number of cover stories for Autris depends on current market conditions and Autris' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Autris is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Autris' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Additional Tools for Autris Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Autris' price analysis, check to measure Autris' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Autris is operating at the current time. Most of Autris' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Autris' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Autris' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Autris to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.