Av Gad Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| AVGD Stock | 1,575 40.00 2.48% |
AVGD Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Av Gad stock prices and determine the direction of Av Gad Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Av Gad's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the value of RSI of Av Gad's share price is approaching 38. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Av Gad, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Av Gad hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Av Gad Holdings from the perspective of Av Gad response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Av Gad Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1,700 with a mean absolute deviation of 61.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,774. Av Gad after-hype prediction price | ILA 1575.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AVGD |
Av Gad Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AVGD price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AVGD using various technical indicators. When you analyze AVGD charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Av Gad Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Av Gad Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 1,700 with a mean absolute deviation of 61.86, mean absolute percentage error of 5,666, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,774.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AVGD Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Av Gad's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Av Gad Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Av Gad | Av Gad Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Av Gad Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Av Gad's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Av Gad's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,698 and 1,703, respectively. We have considered Av Gad's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Av Gad stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Av Gad stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 126.7527 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 61.8626 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0355 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3773.6173 |
Predictive Modules for Av Gad
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Av Gad Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Av Gad After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Av Gad at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Av Gad or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Av Gad, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Av Gad Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Av Gad's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Av Gad's historical news coverage. Av Gad's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 1,572 and 1,578, respectively. We have considered Av Gad's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Av Gad is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Av Gad Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Av Gad Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Av Gad is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Av Gad backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Av Gad, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 2.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
1,575 | 1,575 | 0.00 |
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Av Gad Hype Timeline
Av Gad Holdings is presently traded for 1,575on Tel Aviv Stock Exchange of Israel. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AVGD is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Av Gad is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1,575. About 63.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Av Gad to cross-verify your projections.Av Gad Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Av Gad's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Av Gad's future price movements. Getting to know how Av Gad's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Av Gad may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MSLA | Maslavi | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.17 | (3.48) | 12.30 | |
| YBOX | Ybox Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.29 | (5.08) | 16.30 | |
| HGGE | Hagag Europe Development | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.48 | 0.20 | 4.87 | (2.28) | 23.95 | |
| NTGR | Netanel Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 5.84 | (3.92) | 12.38 | |
| DRSH | Dorsel Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.73 | (2.60) | 8.68 | |
| MDPR | Medipower M | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 3.33 | (3.84) | 7.98 | |
| ASGR | Aspen Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.29 | 0.07 | 4.56 | (4.04) | 16.88 | |
| POLY | Polygon L | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.89 | 0.06 | 3.47 | (3.72) | 9.85 | |
| MSHR | Mishorim Real Estate | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 3.32 | (3.61) | 10.36 |
Other Forecasting Options for Av Gad
For every potential investor in AVGD, whether a beginner or expert, Av Gad's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AVGD Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AVGD. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Av Gad's price trends.Av Gad Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Av Gad stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Av Gad could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Av Gad by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Av Gad Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Av Gad stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Av Gad shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Av Gad stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Av Gad Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0333 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.74) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 1594.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 1587.67 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 54.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (39.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (40.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.65 |
Av Gad Risk Indicators
The analysis of Av Gad's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Av Gad's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avgd stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.72 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Variance | 6.48 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Av Gad
The number of cover stories for Av Gad depends on current market conditions and Av Gad's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Av Gad is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Av Gad's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in AVGD Stock
Av Gad financial ratios help investors to determine whether AVGD Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AVGD with respect to the benefits of owning Av Gad security.