Roundhill AVGO Etf Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AVGW Etf | 44.26 1.02 2.36% |
Roundhill Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Roundhill AVGO's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the etf is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Roundhill AVGO hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay from the perspective of Roundhill AVGO response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Roundhill AVGO using Roundhill AVGO's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Roundhill using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Roundhill AVGO's stock price.
Roundhill AVGO Implied Volatility | 1.12 |
Roundhill AVGO's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Roundhill AVGO's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Roundhill AVGO stock will not fluctuate a lot when Roundhill AVGO's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay on the next trading day is expected to be 44.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.94. Roundhill AVGO after-hype prediction price | USD 44.32 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Roundhill contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.07% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Roundhill AVGO trading at USD 44.26, that is roughly USD 0.031 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Roundhill AVGO's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay options at the current volatility level of 1.12%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Roundhill Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Roundhill AVGO's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Roundhill AVGO's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Roundhill AVGO stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Roundhill AVGO's open interest, investors have to compare it to Roundhill AVGO's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Roundhill AVGO is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Roundhill. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Roundhill AVGO Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Roundhill price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Roundhill using various technical indicators. When you analyze Roundhill charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Roundhill AVGO Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 11th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay on the next trading day is expected to be 44.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.22, mean absolute percentage error of 3.32, and the sum of the absolute errors of 72.94.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Roundhill Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Roundhill AVGO's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Roundhill AVGO Etf Forecast Pattern
Roundhill AVGO Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Roundhill AVGO's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Roundhill AVGO's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 40.40 and 48.12, respectively. We have considered Roundhill AVGO's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Roundhill AVGO etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Roundhill AVGO etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4729 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0533 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.2157 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0262 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 72.94 |
Predictive Modules for Roundhill AVGO
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Roundhill AVGO Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Roundhill AVGO at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Roundhill AVGO or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Roundhill AVGO, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Roundhill AVGO Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Roundhill AVGO is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Roundhill AVGO backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Roundhill AVGO, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 3.86 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 1 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | Very soon |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
44.26 | 44.32 | 0.14 |
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Roundhill AVGO Hype Timeline
Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay is presently traded for 44.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Roundhill is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 44.32 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 180.37%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 0.14%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Roundhill AVGO is about 4172.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.26. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be very soon. Check out fundamental analysis of Roundhill AVGO to check your projections.Roundhill AVGO Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Roundhill AVGO's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Roundhill AVGO's future price movements. Getting to know how Roundhill AVGO's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Roundhill AVGO may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QHDG | Innovator Hedged Nasdaq 100 | 0.06 | 1 per month | 0.74 | (0.12) | 1.30 | (1.30) | 3.55 | |
| ASCE | Allspring Exchange Traded Funds | 0.29 | 1 per month | 0.97 | 0.06 | 2.14 | (1.88) | 4.59 | |
| CEW | WisdomTree Emerging Currency | 0.02 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 0.57 | (0.32) | 1.75 | |
| EQRR | ProShares Equities for | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.87 | 0.07 | 1.54 | (1.80) | 4.11 | |
| JHID | John Hancock Exchange Traded | (0.01) | 1 per month | 0.18 | 0.24 | 1.21 | (0.79) | 3.46 | |
| INDE | Matthews International Funds | 0.11 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 1.20 | (1.44) | 4.78 | |
| GENM | Spinnaker ETF Series | 0.19 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.59) | 0.20 | (0.19) | 0.58 | |
| EBIT | Harbor ETF Trust | 0.08 | 11 per month | 0.64 | 0.09 | 2.39 | (1.60) | 4.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for Roundhill AVGO
For every potential investor in Roundhill, whether a beginner or expert, Roundhill AVGO's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Roundhill Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Roundhill. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Roundhill AVGO's price trends.Roundhill AVGO Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Roundhill AVGO etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Roundhill AVGO could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Roundhill AVGO by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Roundhill AVGO Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Roundhill AVGO etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Roundhill AVGO shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Roundhill AVGO etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Roundhill AVGO Risk Indicators
The analysis of Roundhill AVGO's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Roundhill AVGO's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting roundhill etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.72 | |||
| Variance | 13.8 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Roundhill AVGO
The number of cover stories for Roundhill AVGO depends on current market conditions and Roundhill AVGO's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Roundhill AVGO is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Roundhill AVGO's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out fundamental analysis of Roundhill AVGO to check your projections. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.
Investors evaluate Roundhill AVGO WeeklyPay using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Roundhill AVGO's intrinsic value - the estimated true worth - helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investment professionals apply varied valuation frameworks to compute inherent worth and acquire positions when market prices trade at discounts to calculated value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Roundhill AVGO's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Roundhill AVGO's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Roundhill AVGO represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Roundhill AVGO's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.