AviChina Industry Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AVIJF Stock | USD 0.51 0.00 0.00% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AviChina Industry Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.19. AviChina Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of AviChina Industry's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of AviChina Industry's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using AviChina Industry hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AviChina Industry Technology from the perspective of AviChina Industry response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AviChina Industry Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.19. AviChina Industry after-hype prediction price | USD 0.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
AviChina |
AviChina Industry Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AviChina price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AviChina using various technical indicators. When you analyze AviChina charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AviChina Industry Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AviChina Industry Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 0.51 with a mean absolute deviation of 0, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AviChina Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AviChina Industry's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AviChina Industry Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AviChina Industry | AviChina Industry Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AviChina Industry Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AviChina Industry's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AviChina Industry's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 3.54, respectively. We have considered AviChina Industry's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AviChina Industry pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AviChina Industry pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 107.8583 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0032 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0062 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.19 |
Predictive Modules for AviChina Industry
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AviChina Industry. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AviChina Industry After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AviChina Industry at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AviChina Industry or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of AviChina Industry, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AviChina Industry Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AviChina Industry's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AviChina Industry's historical news coverage. AviChina Industry's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.03 and 3.56, respectively. We have considered AviChina Industry's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AviChina Industry is abnormally volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AviChina Industry is based on 3 months time horizon.
AviChina Industry Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AviChina Industry is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AviChina Industry backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AviChina Industry, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 3.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.51 | 0.51 | 0.00 |
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AviChina Industry Hype Timeline
AviChina Industry is presently traded for 0.51. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. AviChina is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on AviChina Industry is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.51. About 62.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.01. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. AviChina Industry last dividend was issued on the 1st of June 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AviChina Industry to cross-verify your projections.AviChina Industry Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AviChina Industry's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AviChina Industry's future price movements. Getting to know how AviChina Industry's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AviChina Industry may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MIESY | Mitsui Engineering Shipbuilding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.28 | |
| QNTQF | QinetiQ Group plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.02 | 0.03 | 5.54 | (5.68) | 25.23 | |
| JAIRF | Japan Airport Terminal | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| LOIMF | Loomis AB | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| QNTQY | Qinetiq Group PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.16 | 0.06 | 4.56 | (4.14) | 10.66 | |
| SHZNF | Shenzhen Expressway | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SNYYF | Sany Heavy Equipment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.08 | 0.14 | 4.31 | (2.94) | 17.25 | |
| MFGHF | Mainfreight Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.50 | (3.95) | 21.81 | |
| SFFYF | Signify NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 7.93 | |
| FUWAF | Furukawa Electric Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for AviChina Industry
For every potential investor in AviChina, whether a beginner or expert, AviChina Industry's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AviChina Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AviChina. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AviChina Industry's price trends.AviChina Industry Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AviChina Industry pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AviChina Industry could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AviChina Industry by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AviChina Industry Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AviChina Industry pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AviChina Industry shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AviChina Industry pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify AviChina Industry Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AviChina Industry Risk Indicators
The analysis of AviChina Industry's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AviChina Industry's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avichina pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5925 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.96 | |||
| Variance | 8.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AviChina Industry
The number of cover stories for AviChina Industry depends on current market conditions and AviChina Industry's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AviChina Industry is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AviChina Industry's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in AviChina Pink Sheet
AviChina Industry financial ratios help investors to determine whether AviChina Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AviChina with respect to the benefits of owning AviChina Industry security.