Avolta AG Stock Forward View
| AVOL Stock | 48.38 0.52 1.06% |
Avolta Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Avolta AG's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.714 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.9709 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.3389 | Wall Street Target Price 50.14 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.042 |
Using Avolta AG hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Avolta AG from the perspective of Avolta AG response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Avolta AG on the next trading day is expected to be 47.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.53. Avolta AG after-hype prediction price | CHF 48.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Avolta |
Avolta AG Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Avolta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Avolta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Avolta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Avolta AG Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Avolta AG on the next trading day is expected to be 47.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.48, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.53.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Avolta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Avolta AG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Avolta AG Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Avolta AG | Avolta AG Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Avolta AG Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Avolta AG's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Avolta AG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 46.07 and 49.13, respectively. We have considered Avolta AG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Avolta AG stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Avolta AG stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2089 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5247 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0112 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.53 |
Predictive Modules for Avolta AG
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Avolta AG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Avolta AG After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Avolta AG at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Avolta AG or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Avolta AG, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Avolta AG Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Avolta AG's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Avolta AG's historical news coverage. Avolta AG's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 46.87 and 49.93, respectively. We have considered Avolta AG's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Avolta AG is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Avolta AG is based on 3 months time horizon.
Avolta AG Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Avolta AG is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Avolta AG backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Avolta AG, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.53 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
48.38 | 48.40 | 0.04 |
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Avolta AG Hype Timeline
Avolta AG is presently traded for 48.38on SIX Swiss Exchange of Switzerland. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Avolta is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 48.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price increase on the next news is anticipated to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.19%. The volatility of related hype on Avolta AG is about 274.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 48.27. The company reported the revenue of 13.72 B. Net Income was 347 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 8.79 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Avolta AG to cross-verify your projections.Avolta AG Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Avolta AG's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Avolta AG's future price movements. Getting to know how Avolta AG's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Avolta AG may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MOZN | mobilezone ag | 0.10 | 3 per month | 1.05 | 0.22 | 2.57 | (1.82) | 8.13 | |
| UHR | The Swatch Group | 1.90 | 4 per month | 1.33 | 0.11 | 3.31 | (2.32) | 15.44 | |
| SIGN | SIG Combibloc Group | 0.18 | 8 per month | 1.21 | 0.28 | 4.14 | (2.62) | 12.99 | |
| UHRN | Swatch Group AG | 1.06 | 2 per month | 1.12 | 0.1 | 3.25 | (2.57) | 15.62 | |
| AUTN | Autoneum Holding AG | (8.60) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 2.44 | (5.30) | 9.69 | |
| VETN | Vetropack Holding SA | (0.20) | 1 per month | 1.81 | 0.16 | 3.37 | (2.25) | 11.06 | |
| VZUG | V Zug Holding | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 1.77 | (1.84) | 7.36 | |
| TIBN | Bergbahnen Engelberg Truebsee | 0.60 | 2 per month | 1.36 | 0.16 | 3.18 | (2.30) | 7.86 | |
| LMN | Lastminute NV | (0.05) | 5 per month | 1.88 | 0.01 | 3.48 | (3.67) | 9.05 |
Other Forecasting Options for Avolta AG
For every potential investor in Avolta, whether a beginner or expert, Avolta AG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Avolta Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Avolta. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Avolta AG's price trends.Avolta AG Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Avolta AG stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Avolta AG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Avolta AG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Avolta AG Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Avolta AG stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Avolta AG shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Avolta AG stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Avolta AG entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 1775.45 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.62) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 48.42 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 48.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.52) |
Avolta AG Risk Indicators
The analysis of Avolta AG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Avolta AG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting avolta stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.53 | |||
| Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.39 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Avolta AG
The number of cover stories for Avolta AG depends on current market conditions and Avolta AG's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Avolta AG is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Avolta AG's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Avolta AG Short Properties
Avolta AG's future price predictability will typically decrease when Avolta AG's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Avolta AG often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Avolta AG's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Avolta AG's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 150.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 756 M |
Additional Tools for Avolta Stock Analysis
When running Avolta AG's price analysis, check to measure Avolta AG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Avolta AG is operating at the current time. Most of Avolta AG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Avolta AG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Avolta AG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Avolta AG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.