Amplify Travel Etf Forecast - Naive Prediction
| AWAY Etf | USD 20.08 0.13 0.64% |
Amplify Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength momentum indicator of Amplify Travel's share price is approaching 41. This suggests that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Amplify Travel, making its price go up or down. Momentum 41
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Amplify Travel hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amplify Travel Tech from the perspective of Amplify Travel response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amplify Travel using Amplify Travel's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amplify using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amplify Travel's stock price.
Amplify Travel Implied Volatility | 0.72 |
Amplify Travel's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amplify Travel Tech stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amplify Travel's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amplify Travel stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amplify Travel's options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amplify Travel Tech on the next trading day is expected to be 20.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.49. Amplify Travel after-hype prediction price | USD 20.08 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplify Travel to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amplify contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amplify Travel Tech will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.045% per day over the life of the 2026-02-20 option contract. With Amplify Travel trading at USD 20.08, that is roughly USD 0.009036 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amplify Travel's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amplify Travel Tech options at the current volatility level of 0.72%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-02-20 Amplify Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Amplify Travel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Amplify Travel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Amplify Travel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Amplify Travel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Amplify Travel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Amplify Travel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Amplify. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Amplify Travel Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Amplify price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amplify using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amplify charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Amplify Travel Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amplify Travel Tech on the next trading day is expected to be 20.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29, mean absolute percentage error of 0.14, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.49.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Amplify Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Amplify Travel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Amplify Travel Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Amplify Travel | Amplify Travel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Amplify Travel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Amplify Travel's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Amplify Travel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.97 and 21.33, respectively. We have considered Amplify Travel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Amplify Travel etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Amplify Travel etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.1145 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2867 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0138 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 17.4857 |
Predictive Modules for Amplify Travel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Amplify Travel Tech. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Amplify Travel After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Amplify Travel at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amplify Travel or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of Amplify Travel, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Amplify Travel Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Amplify Travel's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amplify Travel's historical news coverage. Amplify Travel's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 18.89 and 21.27, respectively. We have considered Amplify Travel's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Amplify Travel is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amplify Travel Tech is based on 3 months time horizon.
Amplify Travel Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as Amplify Travel is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amplify Travel backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amplify Travel, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.18 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.08 | 20.08 | 0.00 |
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Amplify Travel Hype Timeline
Amplify Travel Tech is presently traded for 20.08. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Amplify is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Amplify Travel is about 2458.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.08. About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 592.67. Amplify Travel Tech had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplify Travel to cross-verify your projections.Amplify Travel Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Amplify Travel's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amplify Travel's future price movements. Getting to know how Amplify Travel's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amplify Travel may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| FFLS | Northern Lights | 0.10 | 4 per month | 0.40 | (0.14) | 0.73 | (0.69) | 2.44 | |
| DIVS | SmartETFs Dividend Builder | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.57 | (0.11) | 0.97 | (0.90) | 2.48 | |
| JDVI | John Hancock Exchange Traded | (0.14) | 1 per month | 0.51 | 0.14 | 1.43 | (1.15) | 3.14 | |
| NETL | Fundamental Income Net | 0.10 | 3 per month | 0.71 | (0.08) | 1.13 | (1.04) | 3.01 | |
| MOOD | Relative Sentiment Tactical | (0.22) | 7 per month | 0.43 | 0.20 | 1.60 | (1.35) | 3.44 | |
| TOAK | Manager Directed Portfolios | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.02 | (0.51) | 0.14 | (0.11) | 1.34 | |
| EWUS | iShares MSCI United | (0.11) | 2 per month | 0.65 | 0.08 | 1.76 | (1.45) | 3.80 | |
| CSNR | Cohen Steers Natural | 0.27 | 1 per month | 0.71 | 0.23 | 1.59 | (1.54) | 3.56 | |
| WISE | Themes Generative Artificial | 0.57 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.44 | (3.94) | 8.23 | |
| ENOR | iShares MSCI Norway | (0.08) | 3 per month | 0.70 | 0.08 | 1.98 | (1.29) | 4.57 |
Other Forecasting Options for Amplify Travel
For every potential investor in Amplify, whether a beginner or expert, Amplify Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Amplify Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Amplify. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Amplify Travel's price trends.Amplify Travel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Amplify Travel etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Amplify Travel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Amplify Travel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Amplify Travel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Amplify Travel etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Amplify Travel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Amplify Travel etf market strength indicators, traders can identify Amplify Travel Tech entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Amplify Travel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Amplify Travel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Amplify Travel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amplify etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8852 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Variance | 1.35 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Amplify Travel
The number of cover stories for Amplify Travel depends on current market conditions and Amplify Travel's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amplify Travel is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amplify Travel's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Amplify Travel to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
The market value of Amplify Travel Tech is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amplify that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amplify Travel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amplify Travel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amplify Travel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amplify Travel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amplify Travel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Amplify Travel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amplify Travel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.