Aberdeen Global Fund Forward View

AWP Fund  USD 3.92  0.04  1.01%   
Aberdeen Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today the relative strength index (rsi) of Aberdeen Global's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Aberdeen Global's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aberdeen Global Premier, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Aberdeen Global hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aberdeen Global Premier from the perspective of Aberdeen Global response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aberdeen Global Premier on the next trading day is expected to be 3.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.79.

Aberdeen Global after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 3.92  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aberdeen Global to cross-verify your projections.

Aberdeen Global Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aberdeen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aberdeen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aberdeen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Aberdeen Global is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aberdeen Global Premier value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Aberdeen Global Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aberdeen Global Premier on the next trading day is expected to be 3.89 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.03, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.79.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aberdeen Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aberdeen Global's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Aberdeen Global Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aberdeen Global  Aberdeen Global Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Aberdeen Global Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Aberdeen Global's Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aberdeen Global's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.16 and 4.62, respectively. We have considered Aberdeen Global's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
3.92
3.89
Expected Value
4.62
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aberdeen Global fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aberdeen Global fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.2298
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0289
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0075
SAESum of the absolute errors1.7897
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aberdeen Global Premier. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aberdeen Global. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Aberdeen Global

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aberdeen Global Premier. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aberdeen Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
3.193.924.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
3.173.904.63
Details

Aberdeen Global After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aberdeen Global at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aberdeen Global or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Fund prices, such as prices of Aberdeen Global, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Aberdeen Global Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aberdeen Global's fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aberdeen Global's historical news coverage. Aberdeen Global's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.19 and 4.65, respectively. We have considered Aberdeen Global's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.92
3.92
After-hype Price
4.65
Upside
Aberdeen Global is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aberdeen Global Premier is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aberdeen Global Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Fund such as Aberdeen Global is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aberdeen Global backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aberdeen Global, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
0.73
 0.00  
 0.00  
1 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.92
3.92
0.00 
7,300  
Notes

Aberdeen Global Hype Timeline

On the 6th of February Aberdeen Global Premier is traded for 3.92. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aberdeen is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aberdeen Global is about 3476.19%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.92. About 22.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.83. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aberdeen Global Premier has Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 193.5. The entity recorded a loss per share of 1.57. The firm last dividend was issued on the 21st of October 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aberdeen Global to cross-verify your projections.

Aberdeen Global Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aberdeen Global's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aberdeen Global's future price movements. Getting to know how Aberdeen Global's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aberdeen Global may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AGDAberdeen Global Dynamic(0.04)1 per month 0.96  0.07  1.90 (2.15) 5.99 
BGHBarings Global Short(0.19)3 per month 0.44 (0.05) 0.87 (0.67) 2.15 
RCSPimco Strategic Income(0.03)2 per month 0.00 (0.16) 2.18 (4.02) 10.30 
EDDMorgan Stanley Emerging 0.04 2 per month 0.43  0.21  1.46 (1.08) 3.29 
ASGLiberty All Star 0.03 6 per month 0.00 (0.12) 1.72 (1.69) 3.91 
RFICohen Steers Total 0.03 7 per month 0.00 (0.08) 1.00 (1.01) 2.61 
ARDCAres Dynamic Credit(0.04)2 per month 0.43 (0.09) 0.90 (0.61) 3.12 
FOFCohen Steers Closed 0.01 9 per month 0.70  0.11  1.33 (1.30) 6.22 
SPXXNuveen SP 500 0.00 0 per month 0.64 (0.01) 1.34 (1.22) 2.87 
WAMVXWasatch Micro Cap(0.02)1 per month 0.75  0.12  2.44 (1.93) 15.47 

Other Forecasting Options for Aberdeen Global

For every potential investor in Aberdeen, whether a beginner or expert, Aberdeen Global's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aberdeen Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aberdeen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aberdeen Global's price trends.

Aberdeen Global Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aberdeen Global fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aberdeen Global could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aberdeen Global by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aberdeen Global Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aberdeen Global fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aberdeen Global shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aberdeen Global fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Aberdeen Global Premier entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Aberdeen Global Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aberdeen Global's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aberdeen Global's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aberdeen fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Aberdeen Global

The number of cover stories for Aberdeen Global depends on current market conditions and Aberdeen Global's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aberdeen Global is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aberdeen Global's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Aberdeen Fund

Aberdeen Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aberdeen Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aberdeen with respect to the benefits of owning Aberdeen Global security.
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