Australian Dollar Index Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AXY Index | 65.10 0.20 0.31% |
Momentum 70
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Australian Dollar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Australian Dollar Currency from the perspective of Australian Dollar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Australian Dollar Currency on the next trading day is expected to be 65.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.70. Australian Dollar after-hype prediction price | AUD 65.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as index price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product. Australian Dollar Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Australian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Australian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Australian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Australian Dollar Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Australian Dollar Currency on the next trading day is expected to be 65.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Australian Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Australian Dollar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Australian Dollar Index Forecast Pattern
Australian Dollar Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Australian Dollar's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Australian Dollar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 64.67 and 65.53, respectively. We have considered Australian Dollar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Australian Dollar index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Australian Dollar index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.7022 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.065 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.195 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0031 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.7 |
Predictive Modules for Australian Dollar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Australian Dollar. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the index market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the index market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Australian Dollar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of Australian Dollar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Australian Dollar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Index prices, such as prices of Australian Dollar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Australian Dollar Index Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Index such as Australian Dollar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Australian Dollar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Index price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Australian Dollar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
65.10 | 65.10 | 0.00 |
|
Australian Dollar Hype Timeline
Australian Dollar is presently traded for 65.10on INDX of Australia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Australian is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Australian Dollar is about 4362.32%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 65.10. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any index could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in gross domestic product.Australian Dollar Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Australian Dollar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Australian Dollar's future price movements. Getting to know how Australian Dollar's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Australian Dollar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SLB | Stelar Metals | (0) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 7.14 | (8.33) | 20.44 | |
| AHC | Austco Healthcare | 0.06 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 2.86 | (5.13) | 23.31 | |
| VIT | Vitura Health | (0) | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 4.84 | (4.17) | 13.07 | |
| ONE | Oneview Healthcare Plc | 0.01 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 6.90 | (7.69) | 23.96 | |
| AAM | Aumega Metals | 0 | 4 per month | 3.52 | 0.03 | 8.57 | (7.14) | 24.54 | |
| REG | Regis Healthcare | (0.11) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 2.50 | (2.84) | 8.76 | |
| PMT | Patriot Battery Metals | (0.03) | 3 per month | 4.52 | 0.04 | 8.16 | (8.11) | 28.42 |
Other Forecasting Options for Australian Dollar
For every potential investor in Australian, whether a beginner or expert, Australian Dollar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Australian Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Australian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Australian Dollar's price trends.Australian Dollar Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Australian Dollar index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Australian Dollar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Australian Dollar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Australian Dollar Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Australian Dollar index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Australian Dollar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Australian Dollar index market strength indicators, traders can identify Australian Dollar Currency entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 65.1 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 65.1 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.1 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.2 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 70.84 |
Australian Dollar Risk Indicators
The analysis of Australian Dollar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Australian Dollar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting australian index prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3179 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4232 | |||
| Variance | 0.1791 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.1721 | |||
| Semi Variance | (0) | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.43) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Australian Dollar
The number of cover stories for Australian Dollar depends on current market conditions and Australian Dollar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Australian Dollar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Australian Dollar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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