AstraZeneca PLC Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AZN Stock | USD 92.77 0.18 0.19% |
AstraZeneca Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although AstraZeneca PLC's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of AstraZeneca PLC's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of AstraZeneca PLC fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of AstraZeneca PLC's share price is at 54. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling AstraZeneca PLC, making its price go up or down. Momentum 54
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.78 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.0892 | EPS Estimate Current Year 4.584 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.1253 | Wall Street Target Price 101.7755 |
Using AstraZeneca PLC hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of AstraZeneca PLC from the perspective of AstraZeneca PLC response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AstraZeneca PLC using AstraZeneca PLC's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AstraZeneca using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AstraZeneca PLC's stock price.
AstraZeneca PLC Short Interest
An investor who is long AstraZeneca PLC may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AstraZeneca PLC and may potentially protect profits, hedge AstraZeneca PLC with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 79.7976 | Short Percent 0.004 | Short Ratio 2.25 | Shares Short Prior Month 10.9 M | 50 Day MA 91.9766 |
AstraZeneca Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AstraZeneca PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 92.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.68.AstraZeneca PLC Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to AstraZeneca PLC's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in AstraZeneca. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AstraZeneca can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around AstraZeneca PLC. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AstraZeneca PLC's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AstraZeneca PLC.
AstraZeneca PLC Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
AstraZeneca PLC's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of AstraZeneca PLC stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AstraZeneca PLC's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AstraZeneca PLC stock will not fluctuate a lot when AstraZeneca PLC's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AstraZeneca PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 92.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.68. AstraZeneca PLC after-hype prediction price | USD 93.04 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AstraZeneca contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that AstraZeneca PLC will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With AstraZeneca PLC trading at USD 92.77, that is roughly USD 0.0215 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating AstraZeneca PLC's daily price movement you should consider acquiring AstraZeneca PLC options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 AstraZeneca Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast AstraZeneca PLC's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in AstraZeneca PLC's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for AstraZeneca PLC stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current AstraZeneca PLC's open interest, investors have to compare it to AstraZeneca PLC's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of AstraZeneca PLC is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in AstraZeneca. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
AstraZeneca PLC Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine AstraZeneca price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AstraZeneca using various technical indicators. When you analyze AstraZeneca charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AstraZeneca PLC Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 1st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AstraZeneca PLC on the next trading day is expected to be 92.77 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.18, mean absolute percentage error of 2.23, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.68.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AstraZeneca Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AstraZeneca PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AstraZeneca PLC Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AstraZeneca PLC | AstraZeneca PLC Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
AstraZeneca PLC Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AstraZeneca PLC's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AstraZeneca PLC's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 91.27 and 94.27, respectively. We have considered AstraZeneca PLC's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AstraZeneca PLC stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AstraZeneca PLC stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.0764 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.2711 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.1781 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0129 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 70.685 |
Predictive Modules for AstraZeneca PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AstraZeneca PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.AstraZeneca PLC After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of AstraZeneca PLC at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AstraZeneca PLC or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AstraZeneca PLC, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
AstraZeneca PLC Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting AstraZeneca PLC's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AstraZeneca PLC's historical news coverage. AstraZeneca PLC's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 91.54 and 94.54, respectively. We have considered AstraZeneca PLC's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
AstraZeneca PLC is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AstraZeneca PLC is based on 3 months time horizon.
AstraZeneca PLC Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as AstraZeneca PLC is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AstraZeneca PLC backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AstraZeneca PLC, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 1.50 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
92.77 | 93.04 | 0.29 |
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AstraZeneca PLC Hype Timeline
On the 31st of January AstraZeneca PLC is traded for 92.77. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.27, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.15. AstraZeneca is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 93.04 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 120.97%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.29%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on AstraZeneca PLC is about 214.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 92.62. The company reported the last year's revenue of 54.07 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 8.69 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 48.4 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AstraZeneca PLC to cross-verify your projections.AstraZeneca PLC Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to AstraZeneca PLC's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AstraZeneca PLC's future price movements. Getting to know how AstraZeneca PLC's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AstraZeneca PLC may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NVS | Novartis AG ADR | 0.27 | 8 per month | 1.13 | 0.11 | 2.59 | (2.32) | 6.07 | |
| GSK | GlaxoSmithKline PLC ADR | (0.41) | 10 per month | 1.31 | 0.07 | 2.38 | (2.17) | 8.39 | |
| RHHBY | Roche Holding Ltd | 0.09 | 13 per month | 0.92 | 0.21 | 3.60 | (1.93) | 13.68 | |
| BMY | Bristol Myers Squibb | 3.37 | 10 per month | 1.04 | 0.16 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 11.16 | |
| SNY | Sanofi ADR | 0.22 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.87 | (2.19) | 5.92 | |
| MRK | Merck Company | (0.91) | 7 per month | 1.14 | 0.17 | 3.59 | (1.98) | 8.09 | |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences | 2.01 | 9 per month | 1.34 | 0.11 | 3.01 | (2.41) | 6.70 | |
| JNJ | Johnson Johnson | (0.28) | 6 per month | 0.59 | 0.19 | 2.29 | (1.39) | 5.56 | |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc | 3.68 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 2.95 | (2.86) | 8.22 | |
| LLY | Eli Lilly and | (19.44) | 6 per month | 1.34 | 0.15 | 3.81 | (2.19) | 8.33 | |
| PFE | Pfizer Inc | 0.07 | 7 per month | 1.14 | 0.06 | 2.24 | (2.24) | 7.97 | |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc | 2.92 | 8 per month | 1.17 | 0.12 | 3.47 | (2.59) | 11.18 |
Other Forecasting Options for AstraZeneca PLC
For every potential investor in AstraZeneca, whether a beginner or expert, AstraZeneca PLC's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AstraZeneca Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AstraZeneca. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AstraZeneca PLC's price trends.AstraZeneca PLC Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AstraZeneca PLC stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AstraZeneca PLC could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AstraZeneca PLC by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AstraZeneca PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AstraZeneca PLC stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AstraZeneca PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AstraZeneca PLC stock market strength indicators, traders can identify AstraZeneca PLC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
AstraZeneca PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of AstraZeneca PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AstraZeneca PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astrazeneca stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.31 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Variance | 2.16 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AstraZeneca PLC
The number of cover stories for AstraZeneca PLC depends on current market conditions and AstraZeneca PLC's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AstraZeneca PLC is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AstraZeneca PLC's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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AstraZeneca PLC Short Properties
AstraZeneca PLC's future price predictability will typically decrease when AstraZeneca PLC's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of AstraZeneca PLC often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AstraZeneca PLC's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AstraZeneca PLC's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.5 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of AstraZeneca PLC to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in AstraZeneca Stock, please use our How to Invest in AstraZeneca PLC guide.You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Will Pharmaceuticals sector continue expanding? Could AstraZeneca diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AstraZeneca PLC. If investors know AstraZeneca will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every AstraZeneca PLC data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.78 | Dividend Share 3.13 | Earnings Share 3.01 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.12 |
The market value of AstraZeneca PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AstraZeneca that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AstraZeneca PLC's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AstraZeneca PLC's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because AstraZeneca PLC's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AstraZeneca PLC's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that AstraZeneca PLC's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether AstraZeneca PLC represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca PLC's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.