Alibaba Group Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| BABA34 Stock | BRL 28.92 0.53 1.80% |
Alibaba Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Alibaba Group stock prices and determine the direction of Alibaba Group Holding's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Alibaba Group's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the value of rsi of Alibaba Group's share price is below 20 suggesting that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Alibaba Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Alibaba Group Holding from the perspective of Alibaba Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 28.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70 and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.19. Alibaba Group after-hype prediction price | BRL 28.92 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Alibaba |
Alibaba Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Alibaba price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Alibaba using various technical indicators. When you analyze Alibaba charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Alibaba Group Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 16th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alibaba Group Holding on the next trading day is expected to be 28.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.70, mean absolute percentage error of 0.76, and the sum of the absolute errors of 41.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alibaba Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alibaba Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Alibaba Group Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alibaba Group | Alibaba Group Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Alibaba Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Alibaba Group's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Alibaba Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 26.21 and 31.63, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alibaba Group stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alibaba Group stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.1576 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.035 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6982 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0228 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 41.195 |
Predictive Modules for Alibaba Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alibaba Group Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Alibaba Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Alibaba Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Alibaba Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Alibaba Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Alibaba Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Alibaba Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Alibaba Group's historical news coverage. Alibaba Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.21 and 31.63, respectively. We have considered Alibaba Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Alibaba Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Alibaba Group Holding is based on 3 months time horizon.
Alibaba Group Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Alibaba Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Alibaba Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Alibaba Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 2.71 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
28.92 | 28.92 | 0.00 |
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Alibaba Group Hype Timeline
Alibaba Group Holding is currently traded for 28.92on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Alibaba is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Alibaba Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.92. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Alibaba Group Holding had 28:1 split on the 22nd of October 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections.Alibaba Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Alibaba Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Alibaba Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Alibaba Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Alibaba Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VERZ34 | Verizon Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.05 | 0.12 | 3.58 | (2.29) | 15.89 | |
| B1RF34 | Broadridge Financial Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.10 | (4.44) | 15.97 | |
| FMSC34 | Fresenius Medical Care | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.28) | 0.00 | (0.81) | 5.85 | |
| G2ME34 | Globus Medical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.09 | 0.11 | 4.49 | (2.20) | 40.85 | |
| XRAY34 | DENTSPLY SIRONA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | 0.1 | 2.54 | (0.83) | 13.55 | |
| BMOB3 | Bemobi Mobile Tech | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.57 | 0.03 | 3.49 | (3.13) | 12.32 | |
| I1RM34 | Iron Mountain Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.78 | 0.02 | 2.60 | (3.19) | 10.17 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alibaba Group
For every potential investor in Alibaba, whether a beginner or expert, Alibaba Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Alibaba Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Alibaba. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Alibaba Group's price trends.Alibaba Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Alibaba Group stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Alibaba Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Alibaba Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alibaba Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Alibaba Group stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Alibaba Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Alibaba Group stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Alibaba Group Holding entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Alibaba Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Alibaba Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Alibaba Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting alibaba stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Variance | 7.58 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alibaba Group
The number of cover stories for Alibaba Group depends on current market conditions and Alibaba Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Alibaba Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Alibaba Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Alibaba Stock
When determining whether Alibaba Group Holding offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Alibaba Group's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Alibaba Group Holding Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Alibaba Group Holding Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alibaba Group to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.