Best Buy Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing

BBY Stock

USD 60.45 -1.05 -1.71%

The Double Exponential Smoothing output for Best Buy Co is derived from daily price data across the evaluation window. The error pattern reveals whether the model tracked prices consistently or diverged during volatile sessions. Parameters are re-estimated as new trading sessions are recorded, keeping the forecast current. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Best Buy at 60.40 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. Best Buy's Double Exponential Smoothing forecast is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Double exponential smoothing (Holt method) for Best Buy extends simple exponential smoothing by adding a trend component. This allows the model to track directional price movement rather than lagging behind a trending series.

Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of April

Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Best Buy at 60.40 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 63.90 .

This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Best Buy's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Best Buy

Best Buy Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

The projected range for Best Buy reflects the model's ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios for the next trading day. The projected band runs from roughly 58.26 on the downside to about 62.54 on the upside. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.

Market Value

60.45

58.26

Downside

60.40

Expected Value

62.54

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Best Buy stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	Huge
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	0.0122
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	1.0831
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.0169
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	63.9

The model estimates both the level and slope of Best Buy Co prices, giving exponentially decreasing weight to older observations. It is best suited for Best Buy price data that exhibits a persistent upward or downward trend. A wide divergence between the forecast and actual values may indicate a trend reversal or regime change.

Other Forecasting Options for Best Buy

Relative Strength Index values for Best measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in Best Buy's returns informs position size and stop-loss calibration. Candlestick pattern analysis of Best Stock daily data reveals short-term reversal or continuation signals.

Best Buy Related Equities

Checking Best Buy against related firms within the Consumer Discretionary space reveals where the stock stands among peers. Market cap and total value checks frame Best Buy's size within the competitive field. When Best Buy breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.

Genuine Parts Co Dicks Sporting Goods Caseys General Stores Burlington Stores Packaging Corp of Amcor PLC Lululemon Athletica Yum China Holdings Williams Sonoma Nio Class A American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Best Buy Market Strength Events

Accumulation/Distribution and Balance of Power for Best Buy reveal whether buying or selling pressure dominates recent sessions. Balance of Power trending positive indicates that buyers are consistently closing Best Buy near session highs. These signals help explain whether price direction and session structure are moving together for Best Buy.

	Accumulation Distribution	0.0216
	Daily Balance Of Power	-0.79
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.98
	Day Median Price	60.94
	Day Typical Price	60.77
	Market Facilitation Index	1.33
	Price Action Indicator	-1.01
	Period Momentum Indicator	-1.05
	Relative Strength Index	43.88

Best Buy Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Best Buy quantifies how much price variability the stock has exhibited over the measurement window. Downside variance exceeding total variance indicates that negative moves in Best Buy have been larger or more frequent than positive ones. Mean deviation provides a more intuitive measure of typical price fluctuation than variance because it stays in the same units as Best Buy's price.

	Mean Deviation	1.57
	Standard Deviation	2.11
	Variance	4.46

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Best Buy Short Properties

Short-interest data for Best Buy reveals whether bearish conviction in the market is gaining traction. When applied, these measures clarify when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	212.1 M
	Cash And Short Term Investments	1.7 B

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average