Balchem Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| BCPC Stock | USD 170.17 0.59 0.35% |
Balchem Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Balchem stock prices and determine the direction of Balchem's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Balchem's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Balchem's stock price is about 63 suggesting that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Balchem, making its price go up or down. Momentum 63
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.204 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.3 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.1105 | EPS Estimate Next Year 5.5728 | Wall Street Target Price 191 |
Using Balchem hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Balchem from the perspective of Balchem response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Balchem using Balchem's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Balchem using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Balchem's stock price.
Balchem Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Balchem's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Balchem. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Balchem stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 157.8406 | Short Percent 0.0149 | Short Ratio 1.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 291.8 K | 50 Day MA 157.9456 |
Balchem Relative Strength Index
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Balchem on the next trading day is expected to be 170.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.24.Balchem Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Balchem's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Balchem. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Balchem can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Balchem. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Balchem's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Balchem.
Balchem Implied Volatility | 0.24 |
Balchem's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Balchem stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Balchem's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Balchem stock will not fluctuate a lot when Balchem's options are near their expiration.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Balchem on the next trading day is expected to be 170.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.24. Balchem after-hype prediction price | USD 170.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Balchem to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Balchem contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Balchem will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.015% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Balchem trading at USD 170.17, that is roughly USD 0.0255 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Balchem's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Balchem options at the current volatility level of 0.24%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Balchem Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Balchem's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Balchem's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Balchem stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Balchem's open interest, investors have to compare it to Balchem's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Balchem is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Balchem. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Balchem Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Balchem price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Balchem using various technical indicators. When you analyze Balchem charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Balchem Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 2nd of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Balchem on the next trading day is expected to be 170.92 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.80, mean absolute percentage error of 5.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Balchem Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Balchem's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Balchem Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Balchem | Balchem Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Balchem Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Balchem's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Balchem's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 169.53 and 172.31, respectively. We have considered Balchem's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Balchem stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Balchem stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4383 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8007 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 106.24 |
Predictive Modules for Balchem
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Balchem. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Balchem After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Balchem at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Balchem or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Balchem, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Balchem Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Balchem's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Balchem's historical news coverage. Balchem's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 168.72 and 171.50, respectively. We have considered Balchem's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Balchem is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Balchem is based on 3 months time horizon.
Balchem Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Balchem is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Balchem backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Balchem, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.20 | 1.39 | 0.06 | 0.16 | 30 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 30 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
170.17 | 170.11 | 0.04 |
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Balchem Hype Timeline
Balchem is currently traded for 170.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. Balchem is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 170.11. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on Balchem is about 174.84%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 170.33. About 92.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Balchem was currently reported as 40.09. The company last dividend was issued on the 23rd of December 2025. Balchem had 3:2 split on the 21st of January 2010. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 30 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Balchem to cross-verify your projections.Balchem Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Balchem's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Balchem's future price movements. Getting to know how Balchem's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Balchem may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SXT | Sensient Technologies | 0.51 | 9 per month | 1.76 | (0.02) | 2.93 | (2.57) | 9.55 | |
| SSL | Sasol | (0.14) | 10 per month | 3.31 | 0.05 | 5.23 | (4.81) | 18.92 | |
| AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | 1.08 | 10 per month | 1.19 | 0.12 | 2.69 | (2.53) | 7.97 | |
| ESI | Element Solutions | 0.34 | 7 per month | 1.73 | 0.06 | 3.96 | (3.60) | 10.60 | |
| SSRM | SSR Mining | 0.04 | 41 per month | 3.18 | 0.07 | 4.97 | (5.32) | 12.78 | |
| HWKN | Hawkins | 6.46 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 3.29 | (5.80) | 14.80 | |
| PRM | Perimeter Solutions SA | 2.73 | 19 per month | 2.30 | 0.1 | 3.38 | (2.61) | 30.19 | |
| FUL | H B Fuller | (3.73) | 9 per month | 1.51 | (0.02) | 3.48 | (2.38) | 8.23 | |
| CBT | Cabot | (0.23) | 11 per month | 1.89 | 0 | 3.72 | (2.71) | 8.68 | |
| EGO | Eldorado Gold Corp | 0.89 | 10 per month | 2.30 | 0.28 | 5.65 | (3.37) | 11.79 |
Other Forecasting Options for Balchem
For every potential investor in Balchem, whether a beginner or expert, Balchem's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Balchem Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Balchem. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Balchem's price trends.Balchem Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Balchem stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Balchem could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Balchem by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Balchem Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Balchem stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Balchem shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Balchem stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Balchem entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Balchem Risk Indicators
The analysis of Balchem's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Balchem's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting balchem stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9933 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8376 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.84 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9188 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7016 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.33) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Balchem
The number of cover stories for Balchem depends on current market conditions and Balchem's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Balchem is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Balchem's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Balchem Short Properties
Balchem's future price predictability will typically decrease when Balchem's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Balchem often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Balchem's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Balchem's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 32.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Balchem to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Balchem Stock refer to our How to Trade Balchem Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Will Specialty Chemicals sector continue expanding? Could Balchem diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Balchem. Projected growth potential of Balchem fundamentally drives upward valuation adjustments. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Balchem data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.204 | Dividend Share 0.87 | Earnings Share 4.56 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 |
The market value of Balchem is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Balchem that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Balchem's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Balchem's true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Balchem's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Balchem's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
It's important to distinguish between Balchem's intrinsic value and market price, which are calculated using different methodologies. Investment decisions regarding Balchem should consider multiple factors including financial performance, growth metrics, competitive position, and professional analysis. Meanwhile, Balchem's quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.