BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BCRX Stock | USD 6.76 0.10 1.46% |
BioCryst Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the RSI of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' share price is approaching 43 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, making its price go up or down. Momentum 43
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.0594 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.475 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.695 | Wall Street Target Price 20.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.0838 |
Using BioCryst Pharmaceuticals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals from the perspective of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards BioCryst Pharmaceuticals using BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards BioCryst using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' stock price.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Short Interest
An investor who is long BioCryst Pharmaceuticals may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about BioCryst Pharmaceuticals and may potentially protect profits, hedge BioCryst Pharmaceuticals with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.2228 | Short Percent 0.1861 | Short Ratio 10.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 36 M | 50 Day MA 7.2798 |
BioCryst Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 6.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.83.BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in BioCryst. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding BioCryst can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about BioCryst Pharmaceuticals.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Implied Volatility | 1.03 |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock will not fluctuate a lot when BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 6.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.83. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals after-hype prediction price | USD 7.18 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current BioCryst contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0644% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With BioCryst Pharmaceuticals trading at USD 6.76, that is roughly USD 0.004352 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' daily price movement you should consider acquiring BioCryst Pharmaceuticals options at the current volatility level of 1.03%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 BioCryst Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' open interest, investors have to compare it to BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in BioCryst. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine BioCryst price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for BioCryst using various technical indicators. When you analyze BioCryst charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 6.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.83.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict BioCryst Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest BioCryst Pharmaceuticals | BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.90 and 9.62, respectively. We have considered BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.9121 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0106 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1447 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.8269 |
Predictive Modules for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BioCryst Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.BioCryst Pharmaceuticals After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in BioCryst Pharmaceuticals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' historical news coverage. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.32 and 10.04, respectively. We have considered BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is based on 3 months time horizon.
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading BioCryst Pharmaceuticals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with BioCryst Pharmaceuticals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 2.86 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 21 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 21 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.76 | 7.18 | 6.21 |
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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Hype Timeline
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is currently traded for 6.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. BioCryst is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 7.18 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 54.58%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 6.21%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. The volatility of related hype on BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is about 831.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.73. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (0.01) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 0.19 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of $0.19. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 21 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals to cross-verify your projections.BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. Getting to know how BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how BioCryst Pharmaceuticals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ZYME | Zymeworks Common Stock | 0.17 | 6 per month | 2.65 | 0.08 | 5.40 | (4.49) | 36.09 | |
| ARDX | Ardelyx | 0.17 | 3 per month | 2.73 | 0.12 | 10.57 | (4.91) | 29.66 | |
| MAZE | Maze Therapeutics Common | 0.17 | 9 per month | 2.43 | 0.19 | 6.61 | (4.18) | 16.60 | |
| PHVS | Pharvaris BV | (1.45) | 7 per month | 3.27 | 0.05 | 6.58 | (6.01) | 27.81 | |
| SYRE | Spyre Therapeutics | (2.18) | 7 per month | 2.36 | 0.17 | 7.15 | (3.87) | 20.03 | |
| NTLA | Intellia Therapeutics | 1.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.12 | (8.64) | 47.56 | |
| TRVI | Trevi Therapeutics | (0.30) | 8 per month | 3.15 | 0 | 6.73 | (5.94) | 25.67 | |
| WVE | Wave Life Sciences | (0.24) | 11 per month | 3.99 | 0.1 | 8.92 | (6.68) | 164.47 | |
| STOK | Stoke Therapeutics | (0.15) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.31 | (7.67) | 22.69 | |
| UPB | Upstream Bio | (0.65) | 7 per month | 3.29 | 0.11 | 7.87 | (4.60) | 24.37 |
Other Forecasting Options for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
For every potential investor in BioCryst, whether a beginner or expert, BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. BioCryst Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in BioCryst. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' price trends.BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing BioCryst Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading BioCryst Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying BioCryst Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify BioCryst Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 235006.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.77 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.76 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.06) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 43.25 |
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
The analysis of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting biocryst stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.94 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals
The number of cover stories for BioCryst Pharmaceuticals depends on current market conditions and BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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BioCryst Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' future price predictability will typically decrease when BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 206.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 321.1 M |
Additional Tools for BioCryst Stock Analysis
When running BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' price analysis, check to measure BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BioCryst Pharmaceuticals is operating at the current time. Most of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BioCryst Pharmaceuticals' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BioCryst Pharmaceuticals to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.