The Brown Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

BCSSX Fund  USD 24.58  0.38  1.52%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Brown Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 24.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.41. The Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of The Brown's share price is below 20 suggesting that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of The Brown's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The Brown Capital, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using The Brown hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Brown Capital from the perspective of The Brown response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Brown Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 24.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.41.

The Brown after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 35.96  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of The Brown to cross-verify your projections.

The Brown Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine The price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for The using various technical indicators. When you analyze The charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
The Brown simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for The Brown Capital are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Brown Capital prices get older.

The Brown Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of The Brown Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 24.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72, mean absolute percentage error of 9.93, and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.41.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict The Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that The Brown's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

The Brown Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest The BrownThe Brown Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

The Brown Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting The Brown's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. The Brown's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.27 and 30.89, respectively. We have considered The Brown's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
24.58
24.58
Expected Value
30.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of The Brown mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent The Brown mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.5681
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.4185
MADMean absolute deviation0.7235
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0245
SAESum of the absolute errors43.41
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting The Brown Capital forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent The Brown observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for The Brown

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Brown Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The Brown's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
22.1235.9642.27
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
20.5626.8733.18
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
10.3629.7849.20
Details

The Brown After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of The Brown at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in The Brown or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of The Brown, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

The Brown Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting The Brown's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on The Brown's historical news coverage. The Brown's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.12 and 42.27, respectively. We have considered The Brown's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
24.58
35.96
After-hype Price
42.27
Upside
The Brown is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Brown Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.

The Brown Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as The Brown is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading The Brown backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with The Brown, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.84 
6.31
  74.21 
  29.18 
4 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
24.58
35.37
43.89 
7.14  
Notes

The Brown Hype Timeline

Brown Capital is currently traded for 24.58. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 74.21, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 29.18. The is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 35.367999999999995 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 7.14%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 43.89%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.84%. The volatility of related hype on The Brown is about 18.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.76. Debt can assist The Brown until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, The Brown's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Brown Capital sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for The to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about The Brown's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in about 4 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of The Brown to cross-verify your projections.

The Brown Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to The Brown's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict The Brown's future price movements. Getting to know how The Brown's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how The Brown may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
IMIDXCongress Mid Cap 0.12 10 per month 1.02  0.05  1.62 (1.84) 18.01 
SMFYXAmerican Beacon Stephens 103.38 1 per month 0.98 (0.04) 1.51 (1.72) 3.88 
STMPXSimt Tax Managed Smallmid 114.84 1 per month 0.72  0.08  2.18 (1.45) 4.54 
NWJFXNationwide Ziegler Nyse 6.35 1 per month 1.10  0.01  1.78 (2.00) 7.61 
MDLVXBlackrock Lg Cap(0.15)2 per month 0.35  0.14  1.34 (0.99) 4.87 
EGORXWells Fargo Large 0.08 1 per month 0.62  0.08  1.31 (1.43) 9.62 
WFLLXWells Fargo Large(0.07)1 per month 0.21  0.01  0.96 (0.70) 2.56 
MMDEXPraxis Growth Index 0.06 2 per month 1.06 (0) 1.80 (1.87) 6.62 
EKWYXWells Fargo Advantage(0.97)1 per month 2.27  0.16  4.69 (4.32) 10.43 
HDVYXHartford International Equity 123.75 8 per month 0.48  0.11  1.17 (1.09) 6.71 

Other Forecasting Options for The Brown

For every potential investor in The, whether a beginner or expert, The Brown's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. The Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in The. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying The Brown's price trends.

The Brown Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with The Brown mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of The Brown could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing The Brown by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

The Brown Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how The Brown mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading The Brown shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying The Brown mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Brown Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

The Brown Risk Indicators

The analysis of The Brown's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in The Brown's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting the mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for The Brown

The number of cover stories for The Brown depends on current market conditions and The Brown's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that The Brown is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about The Brown's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in The Mutual Fund

The Brown financial ratios help investors to determine whether The Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in The with respect to the benefits of owning The Brown security.
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