Bicycle Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BCYC Stock | USD 20.54 0.28 1.38% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bicycle Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 21.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.93. Bicycle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bicycle Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Bicycle Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bicycle Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Bicycle |
Bicycle Therapeutics Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Bicycle Therapeutics' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2017-12-31 | Previous Quarter 961.4 M | Current Value 890.9 M | Quarterly Volatility 245.5 M |
Bicycle Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bicycle Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 21.08 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.14, mean absolute percentage error of 1.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 70.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bicycle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bicycle Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bicycle Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bicycle Therapeutics | Bicycle Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bicycle Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bicycle Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bicycle Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.65 and 25.51, respectively. We have considered Bicycle Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bicycle Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bicycle Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.5859 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.144 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0479 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 70.9301 |
Predictive Modules for Bicycle Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bicycle Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bicycle Therapeutics' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bicycle Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Bicycle, whether a beginner or expert, Bicycle Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bicycle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bicycle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bicycle Therapeutics' price trends.View Bicycle Therapeutics Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bicycle Therapeutics Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bicycle Therapeutics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bicycle Therapeutics' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Bicycle Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bicycle Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bicycle Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bicycle Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bicycle Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Bicycle Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bicycle Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bicycle Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bicycle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.28 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.36 | |||
| Variance | 19.01 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Bicycle Therapeutics offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Bicycle Therapeutics' financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Bicycle Therapeutics Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Bicycle Therapeutics Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bicycle Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Bicycle Stock refer to our How to Trade Bicycle Stock guide.You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Bicycle Therapeutics. If investors know Bicycle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Bicycle Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.28) | Revenue Per Share 0.716 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.50) | Return On Assets (0.15) | Return On Equity (0.27) |
The market value of Bicycle Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Bicycle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Bicycle Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Bicycle Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Bicycle Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Bicycle Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Bicycle Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Bicycle Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Bicycle Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.