Bardella Preferred Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| BDLL4 Preferred Stock | BRL 6.60 0.50 8.20% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bardella SA Indstrias on the next trading day is expected to be 6.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.65. Bardella Preferred Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the value of rsi of Bardella's share price is below 20 suggesting that the preferred stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Bardella hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Bardella SA Indstrias from the perspective of Bardella response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bardella SA Indstrias on the next trading day is expected to be 6.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.65. Bardella after-hype prediction price | BRL 6.6 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as preferred stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Bardella |
Bardella Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Bardella price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Bardella using various technical indicators. When you analyze Bardella charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bardella Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Bardella SA Indstrias on the next trading day is expected to be 6.56 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.65.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bardella Preferred Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bardella's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bardella Preferred Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bardella | Bardella Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bardella Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bardella's Preferred Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bardella's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.40 and 9.72, respectively. We have considered Bardella's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bardella preferred stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bardella preferred stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.9954 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.01 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1274 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0197 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.646 |
Predictive Modules for Bardella
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bardella SA Indstrias. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the preferred stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the preferred stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Bardella After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Bardella at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Bardella or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Preferred Stock prices, such as prices of Bardella, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Bardella Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Bardella's preferred stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Bardella's historical news coverage. Bardella's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.44 and 9.76, respectively. We have considered Bardella's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Bardella is slightly risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Bardella SA Indstrias is based on 3 months time horizon.
Bardella Preferred Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Bardella is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Bardella backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Preferred Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Bardella, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 3.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6.60 | 6.60 | 0.00 |
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Bardella Hype Timeline
Bardella SA Indstrias is currently traded for 6.60on Sao Paulo Exchange of Brazil. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Bardella is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Bardella is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.60. About 25.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.89. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Bardella SA Indstrias recorded a loss per share of 14.56. The entity last dividend was issued on the 4th of May 2015. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bardella to cross-verify your projections.Bardella Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Bardella's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Bardella's future price movements. Getting to know how Bardella's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Bardella may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BOBR4 | Bombril SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.13 | (0.01) | 6.56 | (6.11) | 19.10 | |
| EALT4 | Electro Ao Altona | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.93 | 0.20 | 3.04 | (1.88) | 8.34 | |
| ETER3 | Eternit SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 2.59 | (2.17) | 6.68 | |
| INEP4 | Inepar SA Indstria | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.54 | (4.10) | 19.44 |
Other Forecasting Options for Bardella
For every potential investor in Bardella, whether a beginner or expert, Bardella's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bardella Preferred Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bardella. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bardella's price trends.Bardella Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bardella preferred stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bardella could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bardella by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bardella Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bardella preferred stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bardella shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bardella preferred stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bardella SA Indstrias entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.08 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.6 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.6 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.25 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.5 |
Bardella Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bardella's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bardella's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bardella preferred stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Variance | 8.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Bardella
The number of cover stories for Bardella depends on current market conditions and Bardella's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Bardella is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Bardella's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Bardella Short Properties
Bardella's future price predictability will typically decrease when Bardella's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Bardella SA Indstrias often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Bardella's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Bardella's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 M |
Additional Tools for Bardella Preferred Stock Analysis
When running Bardella's price analysis, check to measure Bardella's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bardella is operating at the current time. Most of Bardella's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bardella's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bardella's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bardella to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.